(BetMGM/WGR 550) - Through the first six weeks of the 2023 NFL season, only two road teams have been favored by, at least, eight points at kickoff.
Both teams lost outright.
Since 2003, 1,057 NFL regular season games had a closing spread of, at least, eight points. The team favored by, at least, eight points was the visitor in only 213 of those games, or approximately 20%.
It doesn’t happen often — only about 10 times per-season. When it does, the road favorite struggles.
The road team has covered in 43.4% of opportunities since 2003, including in only four of the last 22 games (.181) since mid-December 2021. Most recently, in Week 6, the San Francisco 49ers failed to cover -9.5 in a loss to the Cleveland Browns.
The 49ers’ loss came three weeks after the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Arizona Cardinals as a 12.5-point favorite. That game ended an eight-game outright winning streak for road favorites of, at least, eight points.
But even with that winning streak, road teams entered this season with an ROI of -5.5%, i.e., if you bet $100 on each road favorite of at least eight points over the 20 years, you would’ve been down $1,135.
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the Buffalo Bills are an 8.5-point road favorite against the New England Patriots. If the line holds, it’ll be the Bills’ seventh game within this trend over the last four years. They’re 2-4 against the spread and 4-2 outright.
The Patriots have been a home underdog only 13 times since 2003, none of which had a line more than seven points. Their last home game as a dog of, at least, eight points came in Week 3 of the 2001 season; as an 11.5-point dog, the Patriots blew out the Indianapolis Colts.
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