(BetMGM/WGR 550) - In failing to cover the spread (+1.5) in a Week 9 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Buffalo Bills dropped to 3-6 (.333) against the spread (ATS) this season.
The Bills’ ATS struggles follow a four-year run in which they were the league’s second-best ATS team, leaving them ahead of only six teams this season. They host one of those teams, the Denver Broncos, on Monday in a spot that has favored road teams.
It will be the 50th time since 2003 that both teams entered a game in Week 10 or later with an ATS winning percentage of .333 or worse. As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the Bills are a 7.5-point favorite.
The road team has covered in 28 of the last 49 games, including three-of-five last season and 19-of-31 since 2011. Their 20-season ROI is +12.3%, i.e., if you bet $100 on the road team in each of those 49 games, you’d be up approximately $600.
The Broncos have accounted for four of those 21 ATS losses for road teams. They’re 0-4 in those situations, though none has come in the last five seasons.
The Bills, meanwhile, have never been the home team within this trend. In fact, they’ve played one game in the last 20 years with an ATS winning percentage of .333 or worse. Only one other team — the Green Bay Packers — have fewer than eight games as a terrible ATS team.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for all Week 10 odds, including parlays and prop bets.