While the 2021 NFL Draft is looming in just two weeks, there is another critical decision that needs to be made by Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane just two days after its conclusion.
The Bills, and all other NFL teams, have until May 3 to decide whether or not to exercise the fifth-year option on their 2018 first round draft choices.
For the Bills, that’s quarterback Josh Allen, taken seventh overall, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, selected 16th overall.
Because both players have made one Pro Bowl on the original ballot (Edmunds has made two, but one was as an injury replacement), their fifth-year option amounts increase. For Allen, it will cost the Bills $23.016 million. For Edmunds it’s $12.791 million.
That money would become fully guaranteed immediately upon the Bills exercising the option. In other words, there would be no going back and changing their minds.
There’s no doubt the Bills will exercise the option on Allen, keeping him under contract for two more seasons. The only way it won’t happen is if the two sides agree to a contract extension before that date. There’s been no indication that will happen, but either way, the Bills aren’t letting their franchise quarterback go into the final year of his rookie contract unsigned past 2021.
The more interesting situation is what the team decides to do with Edmunds, who will turn 23-years-old the day before the fifth-year deadline, May 2.
The Virginia Tech product came into the league at the age of 19, which is incredibly rare. According to research at Pro Football Reference, Edmunds’ 46 games played are the second-most in NFL history for any player prior to turning 23 (behind former defensive tackle Amobi Okoye’s 48), and he has more tackles than anyone in league history before the age of 23, ahead of Luke Keuchly and Ray Lewis.
His age is a big reason why the Bills are still very high on Edmunds. His numbers have remained consistent through his first three seasons, finishing with between 115 and 121 total tackles, ranking in the top-20 in the league all three years.
But Edmunds also has his detractors who point to too many missed tackles, bad angles taken, and too often not being able to get away from bigger blockers.
Some of that was definitely the case last season, especially after Edmunds injured his shoulder opening week against the New York Jets. The injury forced him to miss the following game against the Miami Dolphins, but he still played every other game, and has only missed two games in his first three seasons.
Many, including Beane, believe he’s not even close to his ceiling, with a lot of football left and plenty of room to grow.
“In fairness to him, I think when he banged his shoulder up that first game, he got back out there. I think it took him a while,” Beane told reporters in his end-of-season Zoom conference call. “I think it was his first injury to play with. I think he struggled with it, but I thought he played, overall, solid down the stretch. Are there more plays out there? Probably so, but he makes the Pro Bowl. I think that’s legit. I think he’s respected by his peers. I think sometimes in your own fan base, or your own house, sometimes you can be more critical of your own than seeing how they compare across the league. But Tremaine’s 22-years-old, he’s a young player. We still have a lot of confidence in him and where he’ll grow into.”
Draft. Develop. Retain.
That’s been Beane’s motto of building the Bills since he arrived in 2017. He’s practiced what he’s preached so far, already re-signing cornerback Tre’Davious White, left tackle Dion Dawkins, and linebacker Matt Milano to long-term extensions.
Like Allen, Edmunds was a first round pick in Beane’s first-ever draft as a general manager. Beane came to the Bills the year before that, but not until after the draft. He selected Allen and Edmunds just nine picks apart to be the cornerstones and leaders of the offense and defense, respectively, for years to come, and both have been selected as team captains in each of the last two seasons.
There’s a prideful, emotional attachment that comes with those players for any general manager, but Beane has to take pride and emotion out of this decision. It has to be based on merit, value, and how he envisions building the team going forward. That’s where the financial structure of the team also has to be considered.
Like Allen, Edmunds still has one year remaining on his rookie deal. He’s scheduled to make over $2.2 million in base salary this coming season, and count just over $4 million against the salary cap, a very team-friendly number for a starting middle linebacker.
How much money do the Bills want to allocate to the linebacker position after 2021? They just re-signed Milano to a four-year deal worth over $41 million. His salary cap hit in 2022 will be exactly $10 million.
Exercising Edmunds’ option for that season would skyrocket the Bills’ payroll at the position to almost $23 million in cap hits, just for the two starters, and project to be around $35 million for the unit overall, including backups like A.J. Klein and Tyler Matakevich, who are both already under contract for that season.
That total amount would be near the top of the NFL in cap spending at the position, and give the team less flexibility in other areas, especially knowing Allen’s extension is eventually going to take a big piece of the pie. The league-wide cap should increase pretty dramatically over the next several years now that it appears fans will be returning to stadiums, and especially because of the astronomical money being brought in with the new television rights deals.
One very plausible option for the Bills would be to exercise Edmunds’ fifth-year option, buying time both to see what the salary cap projections are for the next few years, but also where Edmunds’ takes his game next season. Then the two sides could work out a long-term extension, possibly even lowering Edmunds’ cap hit in 2022, knowing they’ll have their two starting linebackers together through at least the 2024 season.
If the Bills do that, but don’t believe Edmunds is extension-worthy after next season, they’d still be on the hook for the $12.8 million salary and cap hit in 2022, but still have a 23-year-old, (at least) two-time Pro Bowl linebacker in the middle of their defense, and get, yet, another season to evaluate him, still leaving the door open to an extension or even the franchise tag.
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