Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - The two most talented quarterbacks in the world right now, and possibly ever, are Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
On Jan. 22, 2022, everyone saw the quarterback position played at it's absolute peak level. Trading blows, back-and-forth, where any time left on the clock was too much time.
In the last four years, since Allen became a superstar, the Buffalo Bills quarterback leads all quarterbacks with 163 touchdowns. Mahomes is second with 146.
No one else has more than 125.
In that same time span in the regular season, Mahomes has won 48 games, while Allen has won 43.
No one else has more than 35.
You'll often hear Allen referred to as "the closest thing to Mahomes in the NFL". That's because it's true. Both players' existence will mean you cannot say "no one else can make that throw". There's always going to be one other.
ESPN's Mike Greenberg went on a torrid defense of Allen on "Get Up" this week. In the course of his defense, he mentioned the hypothetical in which Allen ended up with the Kansas City Chiefs, and he, not Mahomes, became one of the greatest ever.
If I'm being nitpicky, both are likely on their ways to becoming two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.
But what about to the concept of his point? Would Allen have Super Bowls in Kansas City?
If that's true, that leads us to the ultimate question when comparing the Bills to the Chiefs: If the quarterbacks are similar, why does one team have two Super Bowls, plus another Super Bowl appearance, and the other has never been there in the first place?
As I see it, there's three potential reasons.
1.) Allen isn't as close to Mahomes as you think
This is the reason I buy the least.
In the last four seasons, Mahomes outpaces Allen in several passing categories, but Allen isn't that far off.
Yards/Attempt: Mahomes - 7.7; Allen - 7.4
Passer Rating: Mahomes - 102.1; Allen - 97.9
Passing touchdown percentage: Mahomes - 5.9%; Allen - 6.0%
In terms of health, get ready to knock on some wood, Allen and Mahomes are two of only three quarterbacks to play in every one of their team's games over the last four seasons.
Allen, of course, has far better rushing totals. In those last four seasons, Allen has 800 more rushing yards and 30 more rushing touchdowns than Mahomes.
Does that make up for the increase in turnovers? I'd say so, give the increase probably isn't as pronounced as you think. Between 2020 and 2023, Allen has 52 interceptions to Mahomes' 41.
Fun fact: Mahomes has thrown two pick-sixes in this timeframe, while Allen hasn't thrown one since Week 1 of 2019. That's the fourth-longest streak of pass attempts without a pick-six in NFL history.
I'm not buying the reason the Chiefs have two Super Bowls, to the Bills' none, is Mahomes being substantially better than Allen. The more you look at the numbers and the tape, it's marginal.
2.) Coaching
What about Andy Reid vs. Sean McDermott?
McDermott has been under fire this week after Tyler Dunne dropped an article at GoLongTD.com detailing many stories of McDermott behind the scenes, as told by 25 anonymous former coaches and players.
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In the weeks leading up to the article, hundreds of callers have called our station criticizing and calling for McDermott to be fired.
McDermott has several late-game situations that have brought on the criticism: Kneeling with 20 seconds left vs. Philadelphia and one timeout, 12-men on the field vs. Denver, and, of course, 13 seconds at Arrowhead will be brought up until the day the Bills win the Super Bowl.
Add into that, McDermott being a defensive-minded coach brings it's own disadvantages. Allen is now on his third offensive coordinator in three years, and the rotating door at offensive play-caller is something the Bills will likely have to get used to.
Ken Dorsey got head coach interviews after one pretty successful year with Allen. I can guarantee you by next offseason, Joe Brady will be getting looks too.
Meanwhile, Mahomes knows who's in charge of his offense until the day Reid decides to kick up his feet on a Hawaiian beach, sipping rum punch and marveling at how the sun shines off his multiple Super Bowl rings.
Sure, having both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill for several years together is a huge piece of this, but how did the Chiefs win the Super Bowl last season with Kelce and a broken down Juju Smith-Schuster as it's No. 1 receiver?
We all saw it in the Super Bowl: Scheming.
Reid, on two separate plays, called the same look to get Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore wide-open in the end-zone for two touchdowns. Brought both players in motion inside, had them run back out outside, confusing the Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks as to who to go with.
The results were the two easiest throws of Mahomes' career in some of the biggest moments of his career.
As long as Reid is coaching, Mahomes will know he has that offensive genius at the helm. Allen might have something similar, but no one can know that. That's the whole point.
That's why it's probably not a coincidence that of the top-eight Super Bowl favorites right now, there are zero defensive-minded head coaches in the mix. That's probably why eight of the bottom-10 teams in football right now are coached by defensive-minded head coaches.
Let's return to Greenberg's comment about Allen: If he was a member of the Chiefs, would he have two Super Bowls? If Mahomes was a member of the Bills, would he have any?
3.) One score games
We argue about record in one score games a lot. Is it luck? Is it coaching?
It's almost certainly more luck than coaching, but what about if we extend the sample size over a long period of time, like the four seasons timeline we were using earlier?
That 12-game difference is the difference between the Chiefs playing every playoff game at home and getting multiple 1-seeds, and the Bills having to scratch and claw to make the playoffs this season.
Blame McDermott, blame luck, it doesn't matter. The results are the Chiefs have an easier path to their accomplishments, and it's because of their record in one score games.
Whatever the reason is the Chiefs have accomplished so much more than the Bills in recent years, it shouldn't be the case.
