Sports bettors rejoice! The 2021 NCAA Tournament gets started this weekend, and we have a full betting preview on each region to get you prepared to make the strongest wagers possible.
Our region-by-region preview continues with our fourth and final one, the East Region.
The East is anchored by No. 1 Michigan but there are worthy contenders littered throughout the bracket, notably SEC champion Alabama and Big 12 champion Texas as No. 2 and 3 seeds, respectively.
Here are the odds from BetMGM for each team to win the region:
Team to beat: Texas +550
While some may be surprised to see Michigan not listed here, the Wolverines come in with some question marks. The loss of forward Isaiah Livers is a crippling blow for Michigan who could struggle in a potential second round matchup against St. Bonaventure.
Michigan is a worthy No. 1 seed, but they are not a valuable wager at this point, +175 to win the region, considering they are not at full strength.
Texas, meanwhile, is as hot as any team in the country. The Longhorns are paced by strong guard play in Matt Coleman III, Andrew Jones, and Courtney Ramey. That three-headed backcourt attack isn’t all though, as Jericho Sims anchors a versatile front court.
Shaka Smart’s team has a manageable path to the Sweet 16 with size advantage against Abilene Christian in the first round, and they match up well with BYU or the winner of UCLA-Michigan State in a second round contest.
A Sweet 16 game likely against Alabama or Connecticut should be an incredible game, but Texas has the talent to beat any team in the country. Veteran guards win in March, and the Longhorns have that, as well as a ton of a size.
If there is one knock on UT, it’s their turnover metrics. Texas doesn’t turn the opponent over and is a bit sloppy at times themselves.
The team has coughed up leads before this season -- notably at home against West Virginia when it blew a 19-point second half lead -- but with momentum on their side the Longhorns are a strong bet to come out of the East with this big number.
Sleeper: Connecticut +800
The bottom half of the East Region is a gauntlet, but UConn is a team to buy for this tournament.
Led by future lottery pick James Bouknight, the Huskies have a trustworthy guard who is capable of 30-point outbursts. There are striking resemblances between Bouknight and Connecticut legends Shabazz Napier and Kemba Walker in their ability to explode on the offensive end.
But, this Connecticut team has turned into a two-way monster. The Huskies are inside KenPom’s top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and can pose problems for No. 2 seed Alabama in a second round matchup.
UConn does a great job at locking down the perimeter, placing inside the top 60 in three-point rate allowed and opponent’s three-point percentage. Alabama is live or die by the three so if the Huskies defense has their way, they can shut down the explosive Crimson Tide offense.
As well, Danny Hurley’s team is a tremendous rebounding squad, sixth highest offensive rebounding rate in the country. If they are generating second chances, the Huskies become a live dog to run through this region and get to the Final 4 as a No. 7 seed.
Team to Fade: Colorado Buffaloes +1200
Oddsmakers at BetMGM seem to be seeing the writing on the wall with this Buffaloes team. Despite being a No. 5 seed, Colorado doesn’t strike me as a team built for a deep tournament run.
‘Rado’s resume is a bit clouded due to a strong 11-1 home record, but a 6-6 road record. Tad Boyle’s club plays at a high altitude and has one of the most pronounced home court advantages in college basketball. When they leave the friendly confines, this is a different team.
I’m cautious to play this team in the tournament due to its clouded home/away splits. I dive in deeper here with my ‘5 teams to fade in March article’, but there are some concerning metrics surrounding Colorado away from home.
Here’s a big one, the Buffs shoot 43% from deep at home, but just 32% on the road from the three-point line.
In the team's first round matchup against Georgetown, Colorado is dealing with a sweet shooting Hoyas team. They shoot over 37% from three as a team and can launch the Buffs right out of the Tournament. If they get past that test, an even better shooting team in Florida State looms in the second round.
Stay clear of Colorado this March.
First Round Upset: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (+1.5) vs. LSU Tigers - Saturday, 1:45 PM EST
I know, this isn’t an ‘upset’ per se, but I wanted to speak on these two.
The key to this game is going to come down to LSU’s incredible offense against St. Bonaventure’s strong defense. The Tigers have a stud freshman in Cameron Thomas who is averaging over 22 points per game this season, but the Bonnies have a stout defense that finished 16th in KenPom’s defensive metric.
There are two potential issues for St. Bonaventure in this one. While the team is adept at cutting off driving lanes and forcing teams to beat them from the perimeter, LSU has the capability of going nuclear from deep.
St. Bonaventure allows the 36th highest opponent's three-point rate, so if the Tigers can get going from deep, there is too much fire power to keep up.
Second, the Bonnies have a six-man rotation. If the team finds themselves in foul trouble early, this can spell trouble because there aren’t many reinforcements on the bench.
With all that being said, LSU’s defense should make it easy pickings for the Bonnies.
LSU’s defense is outside KenPom’s top 100 in defensive efficiency and is terrible on the defensive glass. This is a high-energy Bonnies team that is 31st in offensive rebounding rate and is going to try and play in the half court. If this game becomes more of a half-court battle, the scales will tip in the underdog's favor.
I’m trusting the Bonnies to get the job done against LSU’s porous defense, and they will pose serious matchup threats against No. 1 seed Michigan in the second round, if that matchup pans out.
Michigan’s inability to turn opponents over, as well as the aforementioned injury to Livers, can have them be the No. 1 seed sent home early from the NCAA Tournament.
Grab your piece of the action. Sign up with BetMGM to receive a risk free, first-bet offer all tournament long! Terms and conditions apply.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.