It’s the holiday season in Atlanta, but the Falcons are only finding coal in their stockings after the season they’ve had.
Arthur Blank was adamant this past offseason that it was “playoff or bust” for this team. Well, the Falcons busted after pushing their chips to the center of the table last offseason by handing out massive free agent contracts that haven’t worked out and retaining a flailing coaching staff. After limping through the first five games winless, with plenty of embarrassing losses in tow, Arthur Blank fired both Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff. The Falcons find themselves back in familiar territory when the weather turns cold: a third consecutive losing season and looking ahead to what next season could bring.
So here we are. On the eve of another Christmas celebration, the Falcons have a few things they put on their wish list for 2021.
Get The General Manager Hiring Right
For all of his shortcomings, it should be noted that Thomas Dimitroff did piece together the teams in the most successful run in franchise history.
That being said, the Falcons have a lot of decisions on the horizon. Mainly what to do with the large contracts that Dimitroff inked to the likes of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Jake Matthews, Dante Fowler, and others. That isn’t to say these aren’t great players, because I happen to believe these guys do make this team better, but we’re talking about a lot of money here. According to Spotrac, a whopping $123,685,116 of the team’s $194,692,861 total cap is tied into five players. Among these issues, the Falcons are over $24 million in the red going into 2021. Because of this, the Falcons won’t have an exorbitant amount of flexibility this offseason to retain players or sign free agents. In fact, restructured contracts and roster cuts are likely looming.
With an expensive and aging roster, this makes the NFL Draft that much more important for the Falcons. This is especially true if the new general manager sees it as a possibility for this team to compete right now. However, the uncomfortable conversation that he will likely have to have is whether or not the centerpieces of the last decade are still viable.
Whatever direction the new regime takes, the NFL Draft is a must-win. The team is staring down a top-five selection that offers lots of flexibility. The Falcons are in a prime position to make a trade in either direction or hold fast since there will be plenty of talent still on the board. The Falcons have a lot of questions to answer this offseason. I believe the direction of this team will be determined in the first round of the draft.
The team has already interviewed two general manager candidates in Anthony Robinson and Rick Smith, but upwards of “20 to 25” have been vetted. Names like Terry Fontenot of New Orleans, Ryan Poles of Kansas City, Louis Riddick with ESPN, and Brad Holmes of the LA Rams have been floated, but we won’t know any more until after the season concludes and the timetable of the hire accelerates.
If I had to pick, stealing away a key member from the New Orleans Saints should bring a smile to any Falcon fan’s face. Terry Fontenot has played a key role in dominating drafts and helping the Saints win three consecutive NFC South titles, with a fourth likely on the way. The Saints have been in tough cap scenarios, but with his drafting acumen they have been still been able to sustain success.
Whoever the new leader of the front office ends up being, the Falcons have to get it right.
Hire Eric Bieniemy to coach this team
It’s a moot point now, but the firing of Dan Quinn could, and probably should, have happened following the disastrous 2019 season. Regardless, he was retained and promptly fired after his 0-5 start to the season. Raheem Morris was given the nod and he has been good, not great, in his interim role. While he was recently given an interview to be the head guy going forward, his future prospects with the Falcons are still very much in question. I firmly believe that this team needs a culture change that Morris will not be able to provide. The scars of 28-3 still loom over this organization and the best way to rid those demons is to hit the reset button on this coaching staff.
There will be plenty of options for the Atlanta Falcons to pursue. Brian Daboll in Buffalo and Robert Saleh in San Francisco are both great candidates, so who should be the replacement? That should be simple. Eric Bieniemy should have been given an opportunity last year, but that works to the Falcons’ advantage this year.
It boggles my mind as to how the 51-year-old offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs has not been named the head coach of an NFL team. He has paid his dues to the NFL and it helps that the Chiefs have put up gaudy numbers again this season. Sure, his weapons are elite, but the Falcons are pretty solid here too. While he has begun to slow down a bit, Julio Jones is still an elite wide receiver. When the Falcons do move on from him, they still have Calvin Ridley waiting in the wings to claim that role. Matt Ryan has had a down year, but he has shown flashes of still being that top quarterback that he has been over the course of his career. The Falcons should still be attractive enough for a big-name like Eric Bieniemy.
This call should be easy, assuming Bieniemy is interested in the job. The Falcons have the opportunity to hire a proven offensive mind that seems ready to take the next step in his already impressive career.
Figure out the run game
The Falcons have had issues running the football since 2018, ranking in the bottom six of all NFL teams in that category each year. The Falcons have answered by essentially throwing money at the problem.
Devonta Freeman was coming off two consecutive 1,000-yard and double-digit touchdown seasons. The Falcons rewarded him with a five-year contract worth $41.25 million. In the subsequent seasons, he was plagued by injuries and lackluster run blocking that ended his time in Atlanta.
Over this past offseason, Todd Gurley was signed in an effort to remedy this problem. It was known that he had some lingering issues with his knee, but the Falcons were comfortable enough to offer him a one-year deal worth $5.5 million. For as excited as Georgia football fans were with the signing at the time, you would hard-pressed to find anyone that believes that signing has been remotely successful. In fact just this week, Gurley has been supplanted by backup running back Ito Smith as the team’s lead back. Clearly, paying a veteran has not been the solution.
While we exist in a pass-happy era, effectively running the football should still be a priority. Last season alone, seven of the top-10 rushing attacks made the playoffs and that trend has continued into 2020. I’m not saying that the team needs to become the Baltimore Ravens or the Tennessee Titans if they want to win, but they need to become more efficient in this area. A healthy run game takes pressure off the arm of Ryan, controls the clock, and rests the defense. If the Falcons were able to do this in 2020, this season would be radically different.
Fortunately there are plenty of upcoming options in this year’s draft, with Travis Etienne of Clemson and Najee Harris of Alabama as two names that come to mind. This will be something to watch in the coming months, because the Falcons need to get their guy.
Get us a pass rush
What year is it again? I feel like this has been on every offseason wish list for the Atlanta Falcons for the better part of a decade. The team has been searching for its replacement for John Abraham since he departed in 2012.
We exist in a pass-happy league. In an era that yields more drop-backs per game than ever, the Falcons have struggled to find a guy that can be leaned on to consistently apply pressure. Teams that are able to get after the quarterback are far more likely to make the playoffs. If the season ended today, 12 of the top 16 teams in terms of team sack total would be in the playoffs. Three more of those teams are still in the hunt for one of those slots. That means of the top 16 pass rushing teams, only one is not in the running for the playoffs.
The Falcons have had a little bit more success in this avenue in 2020, but they can only boast an average ranking of 22nd in the league since 2015. Dante Fowler was paid a small fortune to come in and be the guy for this defense. He has not lived up to that billing as he as only accounted for two sacks and seven quarterback hits this season.
Addressing the pass rush has to be a top priority for the next regime. The draft won’t feature a can’t-miss guy like Chase Young this year, but there should be plenty of intriguing prospects to choose from. With the youth in the secondary, bolstering this area of the defense would quickly pay serious dividends.
If the Falcons hit on this wish list, don’t surprised if we’re singing a different tune when Christmas rolls around in 2021. What would be on yours?
