As you might have noticed, this college football season isn't like the rest. Just 76 of 130 FBS teams are playing this fall, with the rest either pushing for the spring, or outright waiting until fall 2021 to get back on the field. That messes with a large list of things - do you crown a January national champion? Can college players handle a spring season, then turnaround and play a full fall slate? Will the Big Ten actually decide whether they're playing this fall?
It's an unprecedented time, but in some sense of normalcy, let's look at who some of the favorites are to win the Heisman Trophy. For starters, a quarterback has won the award in four straight years, nine of the last 10 and 17 of the last 20 years, so it's likely going to a QB. Those other scattered years? It's gone to a running back. So we'll take the list of all the players on 130 teams, whittle it down to all the players on 76 teams and eliminate all the non-QBs and RBs (sorry, everyone else) to come up with this list:
5) Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State: If a running back is going to win it, then put your money on Hubbard. The nation's leading rusher last year (2,046 yards and 21 touchdowns) finished eighth in Heisman voting a season ago, which goes to show just how hard it is for a non-quarterback to win it. This year's 10-game schedule means if he puts up similar numbers - say, 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns - his only chance to win it would be if Oklahoma State goes 8-2 or 9-1 and goes to the Big 12 Championship Game.
There are other very good running backs around college football, but remember how the Heisman works. Folks like Najee Harris at Alabama or Travis Etienne at Clemson are fighting for touches with explosive wide receivers. Arkansas' Rakeem Boyd and Mississippi State's Kylin Hill probably won't win enough to garner serious consideration. Louisville's Javian Hawkins is intriguing, but again, will the Cardinals be a top-20 team? We'll find out this weekend against Miami.
4) Trevor Lawrence, Clemson: A consensus top-three pick in next year's NFL Draft, Lawrence over the weekend confirmed what everyone in the entire world has known for two years: this is his final collegiate season. The junior got off to a good start in Clemson's 37-13 takedown of Wake Forest to open the year, throwing for 351 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for two scores for the first time in his college career. So why does he only check in at five, despite being the odds-on favorite in Vegas?
In short, because the favorite almost never wins. No one saw Joe Burrow coming in 2019. No one saw Kyler Murray stepping in for Baker Mayfield and winning the award in 2018. Few knew of Lamar Jackson in 2016, at least in the sense of being Heisman-caliber. Lawrence has such expectations that a 351-yard, three touchdown game on the road in a season opener isn't met with wonder. He'll need to set the world on fire to win it - which, to be clear, he still can.
2) Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma: Each of Lincoln Riley's three starting quarterbacks have been Heisman finalists, and two have won the award... no pressure, Spencer! Though Rattler's collegiate experience prior to Saturday's glorified exhibition against FCS Missouri State consists of 11 passes, at this point Riley's track record of plugging-and-playing quarterbacks is established. And, again, it was only Missouri State, but Rattler stepped right in on Saturday, completing his first seven passes with three touchdowns, finishing the day 14-of-17 with 290 yards and four scores. Pencil him in for New York right now.
1) Someone off the radar: Sure, it feels like cheating, but it's likely the case. Again, go back to the past few years. Joe Burrow began last year at 200/1 odds to win the award. Kyler Murray was +2000 in 2018, and that was more because of Lincoln Riley's work with quarterbacks than it was faith in Murray. Baker Mayfield started 2017 as one of the five or 10 favorites, but Lamar Jackson was the overwhelming choice after he won the award in 2016... a year in which he started off with 110/1 odds. You get the idea.
So who is likely to come from relative obscurity to Heisman greatness? LSU's Myles Brennan and Alabama's Mac Jones will have a 10-game SEC schedule to prove their worthiness in replacing Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, respectively. There are a couple of veteran QBs still hanging around like Texas A&M's Kellen Mond and Notre Dame's Ian Book, but will their numbers be eye-popping enough? There are a few exciting younger starters in North Carolina's Sam Howell and Auburn's Bo Nix. And then there's someone not even listed who could go on to win the whole thing.