For what seems like the millionth year in a row, New England lost a game in September and it was a clear and obvious sign that the dynasty was over. Yet here we are, in mid-January, and Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and company are a game away from the Super Bowl. For the eighth straight year the Patriots find themselves in the AFC Championship Game, a truly remarkable feat. How remarkable?
Excluding 2008, when Brady tore his ACL minutes into Week 1, New England has reached the AFC title game in 13 of 17 seasons with TB12 as the starting quarterback, a 76 percent rate. In other words, the Patriots are more likely to reach the AFC Championship Game than:
Drew Brees is to complete a pass:
Brees set the NFL record for completion percentage in the 2018 regular season, at 74.4 percent. It breaks the league record set by… Brees in 2017 (72 percent). Still, the Pats are more likely to advance to the AFC title game than the future Hall of Famer is of completing a pass.
Hall of Famer Jan Stenerud is to make a field goal:
There are only four placekickers enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame: Morten Andersen, Georgia Blanda, Lou Groza and Stenerud. The Norwegian kicked in a much different era, when success rates weren’t nearly what they are today. Still, the six-time Pro Bowler converted 66.8 percent of field goals in his career, and only five times in 19 seasons succeeded more than New England’s 76 percent rate.
Washington State is to attempt a pass:
The most pass-happy team in college football in 2018 was Washington State, which is standard with a Mike Leach Air Raid offense. Still, Gardner Minshew and his great mustache only threw the ball on 70.8 percent of plays. It led the nation, but it’s still more likely to find New England in the AFC title game.
Mike Krzyzewski is to win a college basketball game:
The winningest coach in college basketball history, Coach K has a lifetime record of 1114-340 after Monday night’s loss to Syracuse, a .766 win percentage. The exact chances of Tom Brady going to the AFC title game? Almost identical, at .765.
A Major Leaguer is to steal a base:
Stolen bases are down overall in terms of quantity, but in terms of quality it’s remained steady. Last year across baseball, players’ success rate in trying to swipe a bag sat at 72 percent. In 2017 it was at 73 percent, and in 2016, 71 percent. You get the picture here.
LeBron James is to make a free throw:
James is pretty good at the whole “basketball” thing. Among his countless other accolades he’s eighth all-time in free throws made and sixth in free throws attempted. His lifetime 73.8 free throw percentage, though, falls short of New England’s AFC title game success rate.
Wayne Rooney is to convert a penalty kick:
The top goalscorer in Manchester United history and second all-time in the Premier League, Rooney knows a thing or two about finding the back of the net. Alas, in his club career he converted 26 out of 37 penalty kick attempts, a 70.2 percent success rate.