While Congress continues to search for a solution at the border, some are wondering if the expulsion of undocumented immigrants could have a negative impact on the economy.
In a recent paper published in The National Interest, Ramya Vijaya, an associate professor of economics at Richard Stockton College of New Jersey, argued that “MAGA is wrong” and the United States economy needs immigrants.
The key argument that Vijaya makes in his paper is that the U.S. labor market is facing a shortage of workers and will likely not end soon with the U.S.-born population getting older overall.
“Rather than a drain on the economy, an uptick in immigration presents an opportunity to alleviate this shortage,” Vijaya wrote. “Data from my own research and studies conducted by other scholars show that immigrant workers in the U.S. are more likely to be active in the labor market – either employed or looking for work – and tend to work in professions with the most unmet demand.”
Currently, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce reports that the country has “ 9.5 million job openings in the U.S., but only 6.5 million unemployed workers.”
The agency also shared that the country’s current labor force participation rate is 62.5%, down from February 2020, when it was 63.3%, and January 2001 when it was 67.2%.
Multiple factors are named as a reason for the shortage, including Americans losing their jobs during the pandemic and not actively searching for a new one; workers not willing to take jobs that aren’t remote; workers retiring, going part-time, or becoming a homemaker; and more.
Nonetheless, the current worker shortage sits at around 3 million, and Vijaya calculates that it would be much worse without foreign-born workers, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that they accounted for 18.1% of the U.S. civilian labor force in 2022.
Vijaya also highlights that foreign-born workers are more likely to seek work than their U.S.-born counterparts. In total, BLS reports that 65.9% of those born elsewhere were either employed or actively searching for work, compared to 61.5% of people born in the U.S.
“In a study I conducted a few years ago, I found that immigrants who arrive in the United States as refugees fleeing violence and persecution in their home countries are eventually more likely to be employed or looking for work than people who are born in the U.S.,” Vijaya wrote.
Current shortfalls in the labor market are in the healthcare and social services sector, where 1.8 million jobs are open. The next largest is the professional and business services sector, which has 1.7 million open jobs and includes anything from legal services to janitorial work.
As things sit, nearly a quarter (22%) of employed immigrants work in one of those two sectors or another service occupation.
Vijaya says that while many are working to stop the flow of immigrants into the country, it could inevitably be better for the economy and everyone if the opposite occurred.
“The labor market data not only makes it clear that the U.S. economy can absorb large numbers of immigrants, but it shows that these newcomers could be a much-needed solution to a labor supply crisis,” he said.