For the fourth time in the last six full seasons, the New York Yankees entered the All-Star break above .500 against the run line. At 48-43, their ATS (against the spread) winning percentage of .528 is tied for the seventh-best among all teams.
Here are 10 run-line trends for the first 91 games of the Yankees’ 2023 season:
Despite the seventh-best ATS record, the Yankees have an average cover margin of -0.2 runs, tied for the 17th-best. It’s the worst margin for any team above .500 against the run line.
On the road, the Yankees are 24-16 ATS and covering by an average of 0.5 runs. But at home, they’re just 24-27 with the seventh-worst cover margin of -0.8 runs.
Luis Severino (1-3), Domingo German (3-6), and Clarke Schmidt (4-7) are a combined 8-16 ATS in home games, including 4-13 when the Yankees are favored.
In Gerrit Cole home starts, meanwhile, the Yankees have been very good.
Cole’s 8-4 ATS record has produced an ROI of +38.1%, the sixth-highest among all MLB pitchers with at least eight home starts. If, for example, you bet $100 on the Yankees’ run line in each of Cole’s 12 home starts, you’d be up approximately $450.
Only four pitchers have a better road run-line ROI than German, whose 7-1 road ATS record has equated to +61.5%.
The Yankees started the season with 9 ATS wins in 17 games against division opponents. Since then: 3-10.
Outside the AL East, they’ve been dominant.
Even with four ATS losses in their last five non-division games before the All-Star break, the Yankees are 36-25 against the run line. Only the Cincinnati Reds (41-24) have a better non-division record. (The Yankees went 3-0 ATS vs. the Reds this season.)
In low-total games, the Yankees are sensational. They’re 18-9 ATS when the closing total is 7.5 or lower, a dramatic change from last year’s 27-34-1 mark in those games.
Hopefully you haven’t been pickingthe Yankees in Friday night games.
They’re 2-11 ATS on Friday this season and 18-41 on Fridays the last three seasons. No other MLB team is more than 11 games below .500 over that time.
The Yankees are 6-12 ATS when they didn’t play the previous day. With no rest, they’re 42-31, the fourth-best mark in baseball.
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