Opening Day is less than a week away! We've already done a preview of the Red Sox and Yankees. Time to finish up our mini-series with the revitalized Mets, fresh off the acquisition of the team by Steve Cohen that already paid dividends with the acquisitions of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland and the re-signing of Marcus Stroman.
Expectations are high for the Mets, who haven't reached the postseason since 2016. In order to get back, they'll have to answer these five questions:
1) Does the rotation have enough depth to survive until June? Jacob deGrom might be the best pitcher in baseball, and that won't change in 2021. After that, New York on paper has one of the best rotations in the National League, but its depth is going to be tested right away.
Behind deGrom, Marcus Stroman is the probable second starter after opting out of the 2020 season, followed by (for now) new signing Taijuan Walker. Then there are the question marks: Carlos Carrasco tore his hamstring and Noah Syndergaard is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Both are expected back around Memorial Day, but how long will it take to get back up to speed? In their absence there are options. Joey Lucchesi started 56 games in San Diego in 2018 & 2019, while Jerad Eickhoff has 76 career starts. Youngster David Peterson and free agent flier Jordan Yamamoto will also compete for a look.
2) Can the Mets sign Lindor and Michael Conforto long-term? Fans are rightfully excited about the 2021 Mets, but until something gets done there's going to be a looming worry that this could be a one-year blip. The trade for Lindor was an aggressive and widely heralded move - most trades for a top-10 position player in his prime are - but he's only signed through this year. He hasn't even played a real game for the organization yet, so there's no reason to think he won't sign a long-term megadeal to stay in Queens for basically the remainder of his career. But it's on the table for someone who will command $300 million (at least).
Conforto is a slightly different situation. A home-grown talent who is good for 25-to-30 homers a year, he's exactly the type of player who can be a difference-maker on a championship team: a consistent presence in the lineup who produces and won't cost $30 million a year.
3) Will the bullpen live up to its lofty individual reputations? For all of the name recognition, the Mets bullpen has been an adventure in recent years. Edwin Diaz was really good in 2020 (1.75 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 25.2 innings), after being an abject disaster in 2019. Was that year just a blip? After making just one appearance in 2019, Dellin Betances' debut last season in Queens was lackluster (10 earned runs, 12 walks in 11.2 innings). Jeurys Familia has a combined 5.09 ERA in the last two years. And the one consistent presence, Seth Lugo, will miss the start of the season after getting bone spurs removed from this elbow.
Those names at their best could make for dominance... but it could just as easily become a nightly fear.
4) Will Pete Alonso look more like his 2019 self? It's hard to put too much judgment into a 60-game regular season unlike any other in Major League history. After a torrid rookie season in 2019, though, Alonso's average and on-base percentage fell 30 points and his slugging dipped 93 points - his home run rate dipped a bit, too, but asking for 53 homers a year is unrealistic. His underlying metrics were better - his strikeout and walk rates basically stayed the same and his hard-hit percentage was only marginally off from '19. He has the capability of becoming the face of the franchise. Whether he takes advantage could determine how successful the Mets are in 2021 and beyond.
5) What does the outfield look like? This isn't a bad problem to have, but there are a lot of chefs in the New York outfield, and all need to cook at some point. After not signing George Springer, Jackie Bradley or any other marquee outfield name, Brandon Nimmo will be the centerfielder and Conforto will be in right. That's pretty much set, with free agent signing Kevin Pillar platooning from time to time against lefties (he had a .969 OPS vs LHP in 2020).
Left field is another question. Both JD Davis and Dominic Smith have valuable bats - Davis hit .307 with 22 homers in 2019 and Smith got MVP votes last year after having a .993 OPS. But with the NL reverting back to the no-DH rule, one of them will be the odd-man out on a given night. Smith is probably the better hitter, but his defensive ability on an every-night basis is questionable, at best. Again, not the worst problem to have, but the balancing act by Luis Rojas will be interesting.