If Theo Epstein could reverse the fortunes and defy the seemingly unbreakable curses of two different MLB franchises, he can surely solve the issue of helping baseball to become the best entertainment experience possible. That's exactly what the league brought him on to do, placing him in a consultant role regarding on-field matters and potential rule changes to effectively evolve baseball for the better.
It's about as open-ended a job description as possible, with hundreds and hundreds of rules to potentially be tinkered with, thousands of players, coaches and managers to consider, and millions of fans to appease. But he's ready for the challenge, and he shared some of his thoughts on the direction of the game with Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville.
"I think there should be more action in the game," Epstein said. "Right now, a fan, on average, has to sit in his seat for nearly four minutes to see a ball put in play. And I think that's too long. I think we all agree that's too long.
"It was closer to half that when we were growing up in the game. And especially having kids, these days, it's clear that Generation Z, because of the way they grew up consuming media and entertainment in sports, their attention spans are just shorter. And so it's hard to ask them to sit and wait for one ball every four minutes. So I agree with more action, I agree with a faster pace of play."
The eye (and ear) test tells us the same. Pace of play has been an issue for a little while, and you didn't need to do much research to be aware of frequent debates and complaints on social media or from friends. But there has been some research to back it up, with surveys, like one from Toluna in 2017, telling us the same: more than 50 percent of the 809 sports fan respondents said that the game feels either "far too slow" or "a bit too slow" when watching on TV or a mobile device (via Jayson Stark, then with ESPN). Other polls over recent years have shown different findings, but the issue of pace of play is no longer some unpopular opinion or little-known secret.
And what's the biggest factor, in Epstein's opinion, that has led to the pace of play becoming such a discussion point, with balls in play becoming more sporadic than ever? The increasing strikeout rate. In 1950, a team would strike out 3.86 times per game. In 1975, that number was 4.98. In 2000, that number was 6.45. In 2019 and 2020, the figure was 8.81 and 8.68, respectively, with the last 10 years representing the top 10 seasons ever in team strikeouts per game.
"...If I had to pick one thing, the single biggest difference between then and now and the thing that has sort of caused a cascade of changes, it would be just the fact that the strikeout rate is so high, primarily because pitching has just never been better and it creates a bit of a vicious cycle," Epstein said. "...As stuff has gotten so difficult to hit, it's obviously increased strikeouts and so you see fewer balls in play, you see fewer singles, doubles and triples."
Epstein acknowledges that, with defensive shifting also playing a role, this amounts to fewer baserunners, and fewer RBI opportunities and a different mindset for the batter as well.
"The last remaining thing that [batters] have going for them is the ball, in the last few years, has been a little bit livelier and you can still get the ball out of the park if you get it in the air, so it's led to hitter prioritizing home runs, maybe at the expense of contact a little bit, so batter behavior is changing," Epstein said. "But again, it's a vicious cycle. I think the single biggest driver is just how good (pitchers') stuff is right now and that's led to a strikeout rate that has changed the nature of the game. So if we could change one thing, I get one thing under control, for me, it would be the strikeout rate."
Moving the mound back even a small amount could make a difference, and Epstein seems to have looked deeply into the possibility and the possible outcomes. He says that studies show such a move, whether by a foot or a few feet, wouldn't jeopardize player health and safety, which is the most important thing to consider. He also says that velocity could be relatively restored to numbers from a decade ago, giving hitters a little bit more time to put the bat on the ball.
However, a physical alteration to the diamond would only solve one part of the problem — or trend, if "problem" isn't the appropriate word. Epstein also believes that the evolving role and arsenal of the starting pitcher makes it more difficult for the batter. Everything from velocity training, to spin optimization, to precise data on batter weaknesses and tendencies, to pitch tunneling has led to the "better weaponizing" of data for pitchers, as Epstein puts it, than for hitters.
"Velocity and breaking stuff are at an all-time peak, and at the same time, we have never asked less of pitchers," Epstein said. "When we were all growing up in the game and throughout most of baseball history, starters were expected to go deep in games. That was a part of the job description, that when the manager gave you the ball at the beginning of the game, pitchers saw it as their job to... get you into the eighth, or at least into the seventh. I might even give you nine and you're expected to get through the order three or even four times.
"Now it's changed and it's evolved... I'm gonna take the ball and I'm gonna miss as many guys as I can and then you're gonna come get me in the fifth or sixth inning. And that's fine, because I know you've got five rested guys behind me — sometimes eight or nine rested guys behind me — throwing 97 that can finish the game... so you ask what's different between 1986 and now, well that's a huge part of it."
A statistic to show for this? From 2017 to 2019, there was an average of 48.7 complete games thrown per season. Go back ten years, from 2007 to 2009, and that figure jumps up to 133.3. From 1987 to 1989, that number was 555.3. Two pitchers — Corey Kluber and Ervin Santana — had at least five complete games from 2017 to 2019. 107 pitchers threw at least five complete games from 1987 to 1989.
See those tiny little differences? It probably indicates that the stuff batters are seeing all game is continually of a higher quality and more varied than in past seasons, which may lead to a number of consequences. Yonder Alonso, for instance, thinks that there are more foul balls as a result of players needing to take "emergency hack(s)" to keep up with the improved pitching, and foul balls also affect the pace of play (via Travis Sawchik of FiveThirtyEight).
It'll be up to Epstein to figure out the best practices moving forward and to obtain the consensus opinions of all the voices that need to be taken into account, but it looks as though he's settling into his role and doing just that. What rule changes are to come will be intriguing to observe, but Epstein says that one key factor — along with player health and safety — will dictate their decision-making.
"The goal of all these changes is to also preserve everything that's great about the essence of baseball," Epstein said when speaking on the possibility of a pitch clock. "Any change, no matter what outcomes it creates — it it disrupts the essence of baseball, it's not worth it."
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