New England Patriots (5-2) second-year quarterback is currently sitting with the third-lowest odds to win the 2025 NFL MVP Award, with FanDuel placing his odds at +700 as of publishing.
OddsTrader lists BetMGM as having the best number available for Maye in this market, with his odds currently sitting at +1000.
Heading into Monday night, Maye was sitting in fourth, directly behind Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. But with Tampa Bay (5-2) falling to the Lions (5-2) 24-9 in what was Mayfield’s worst performance of the year, a combination of tickets and oddsmakers vaulted Maye past the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner.
At FanDuel, Maye now sits behind MVP-favorite Patrick Mahomes (+135) and defending MVP Josh Allen (+350). Both players have shorter odds than Maye at the moment, and are surrounded, in theory, by better teams.
But with both the Chiefs (4-3) and Bills (4-2) playing first-place schedules in 2025, Maye may have an advantage when it comes to the win-loss side of the argument when it’s all said and done. Yes, I know W-L is not technically a QB stat. But let’s face it - in the eyes of the voting body, having a W-L record towards the top of the league is all but a prerequisite for winning the league’s top individual honor.
With Week 7 in the books, Maye ranks first in completion percentage (75.2), tied with Jared Goff for second in passer rating (116.4), third in yards per pass attempt (8.6), fourth in QBR (76.8), eighth in passing yards (1,744) and 11th in passing yards per game (249.1) - that last number skewed slightly by backups and injuries. He only has 2 interceptions to his name, and has compiled 200 rushing yards with an average of 4.5 yards per attempt.
Even before Maye’s record-setting performance against the Titans on Sunday in which he surpassed Tom Brady for the most accurate game as a passer in Patriots history, the hype train for Maye’s MVP candidacy had already begun in the gambling community.
Here’s what “You Better You Bet” host Nick Kostos told The Greg Hill Show during his weekly appearance on Friday:
Nick Kostos: “If you like New England, I don't think it's crazy that Drake Maye could win MVP with the schedule being what it is. And there is precedent for second year quarterbacks winning MVP. We've seen it twice in the last 10 years with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. I'm not saying like, bet your 401(k) on it. Just that, look at the schedule.”
Greg Hill: “In your mind right now, just this week as we sit here now, who's in front of him? Is Baker Mayfield in front of him?”
NK: “So Baker's in front. If the season ended now, Baker would win. But like, I don't think Baker is going to win when it's all said and done. I think Josh Allen is still the most likely player to win. And look, there's a strong case to be made for the Patriots to win the AFC East. And the case is that the schedule is way easier than Buffalo’s. They beat Buffalo at their place head-to-head. I still think the Bills are going to win the AFC East.
“But this is where I'm going with this - it's a strong case that the Patriots could win this division, that the Patriots could be the one seed in the AFC, that Drake Maye could win MVP. So I wouldn't make these bets, but I think that you could make them and you could win them."
GH: “Why wouldn't you? Because you wager everything prior to the season to get the best number? Like, why wouldn't you?”
NK: “Well, I think the time to bet Drake Maye was probably a couple weeks ago, not that he can't win now. I think Buffalo is more likely to be the one seed. I think Buffalo is more likely to win the AFC East. I think the Bills are better than the Patriots. So if that's true, Drake Maye is not winning MVP. If the Patriots don't win the AFC East - they have to win the division. You probably have to be the one seed.
“And the other problem with that is the MVP favorite, No. 15 on Kansas City. The Chiefs might not lose another game this season. I'm exaggerating maybe a little bit here, but I think they're the best team right now with a bullet in the NFL. And I don't know how many more games the Chiefs are losing this year.”
Maye’s test in Week 8 will be slightly more difficult, as he’ll go up against a Browns (2-5) defense that just helped beat the Dolphins (1-6) 31-6.
Sure, that’s a six-loss Miami team. But it’s not just what they did this past weekend that should have Maye and Josh McDaniels scheming like crazy this week.
As of publishing, Cleveland is ranked third in total defense, third in rushing defense, and seventh in passing defense. Granted, they’re towards the bottom of the league in both third down and red zone defense, but it’s getting into those high-leverage spots that’s been tough for offenses against the Browns all season long.
Maye’s performance in Week 8 at Gillette Stadium will go a long way, one way or another, towards determining whether or not the 23-year-old should remain a part of this conversation in the coming weeks.
Tune in each and every Monday throughout the football season to Patriots Monday on WEEI. Head coach Mike Vrabel joins The Greg Hill Show at 6:30 a.m. ET, and quarterback Drake Maye joins WEEI Afternoons.