You might have heard once or twice that everything is different this year, and college basketball is no different. With barely any non-conference games being played, postponements and cancellations all over the place, teams being paused (sometimes multiple times) and some conference tournaments at risk of being axed, it's been a rollercoaster three months. And we'll surely get more twists before the Indianapolis-based NCAA Tournament next month.
Namely... how many blue bloods will actually be there? We're not talking about a program opting out because of COVID-19. No, some of the biggest programs in the game are at risk of missing out on the Dance entirely because of their on-court struggles. Looking at schools with at least four championships, how many will actually make the field of 68?
UCLA: We'll start on a high note. The Bruins are undergoing a resurgence in Mick Cronin's second year as head coach. The 11-time national champs begin the week at 13-3 and atop the Pac-12 standings. Though six of their final nine regular season games are on the road, they're firmly on pace to get back in the NCAA Tournament.
They've had an up-and-down resume since making three straight Final Fours from 2006-08. The Bruins have made six of the 11 tournaments since, just twice being a top-four seed, making the Sweet 16 three times but going no further.
Kentucky: The Wildcats were ranked 10th in the preseason AP poll... and it's been downhill ever since. UK followed up a season-opening win over Morehead State with six consecutive losses, the program's worst stretch in nearly a century. A mini three-game win streak followed, but John Calipari's youngsters have since dropped three of four, sit at 5-10 overall, and will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 and just the third time since 1992.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels' streak of nine straight Tournaments is technically intact after last year's event was cancelled, even though UNC was nowhere near the field of 68. This year they're fighting for their Tournament lives, sitting at 11-5 overall. Their peripherals are that of a borderline postseason team (36th in KenPom; 47th in NET). In what is a weird year for the ACC, what the Heels really lack is a signature win. They have none against a top-25 team, but have four chances the rest of the way, plus a pair of games against Duke. The opportunity is there, and we think it will be enough to sneak in as one of the last four in.
Duke: Speaking of Duke, they are in more dire straits than their rivals eight miles away. The Blue Devils are just 7-5, and though four of those losses are by seven points or fewer, time's a-ticking in Durham. Coach K's crew sits 28th in KenPom (that's good) but just 62nd in the NET (that's nowhere near good enough). Back-to-back wins against decent Georgia Tech and Clemson teams is a positive sign, but there's a lot more work to do, and only two more top-25 opponents remain on the schedule. We think that, for the first time since 1994, Duke will miss the tournament.
If that were to happen, it would be the first time since 1976 that the field won't include one of Duke or Kentucky.
Indiana: More in the UCLA mold, but five titles gives you "blue blood" status regardless of recent history. Still, the Hoosiers haven't made a tournament since 2016 and haven't been beyond the Sweet 16 since the 2002 team's championship runner-up finish. While we don't see this IU team as a title contender, they will get back in the field of 68. Top-30 in KenPom and top-50 in the NET, they have a lot of opportunities in a loaded Big Ten to pick up signature wins. Already having beaten No. 4 Iowa, they have five Top-25 games left on the schedule and have plenty of chances for Quad 1 wins to help overcome a 9-7 record.
UConn: No one has won more national titles in the last 22 years than Connecticut's four, though like Indiana the Huskies haven't made the Big Dance since 2016. Though the offense has struggled without star James Bouknight, his return should provide a spark to a team that's 30th in KenPom and 45th in NET. The biggest question for the Huskies is whether they get to the minimum 13 games... they've paused twice and have had 10 games postponed or cancelled because of COVID-19.
Michigan State: Though we cut off our national title requirements at four at the top of the article, we'll make an exception for the Spartans because they're a March mainstay. In every NCAA Tournament since 1997, there have been eight Final Four runs and a national title in that span... but it ends in 2021. The Spartans are 8-6 overall, including 2-6 in Big Ten play, just 62nd in KenPom and 96th in the NET. After pausing for 20 days due to COVID-19, they returned and lost 67-37 to Rutgers before losing handily at Ohio State over the weekend. The Spartans won't make the tournament this year.