Don’t look now, but the sportsbooks are starting to notice what’s going on at 1 Patriot Place this season.
As of publishing, the Patriots (6-2) are sitting with the 10th-best odds to win Super Bowl LX at BetMGM.
Here’s what the table looks like at the moment:
1. Chiefs (5-3), +450
2. Lions (5-2), +600
3. Packers (5-1), +700
4. Bills (5-2), +750
T-5. Eagles (6-2), +1000
T-5. Rams (5-2), +1000
6. Colts (7-1), +1100
T-7. Broncos (6-2), +2000
T-7. Ravens (2-5), +2000
T-8. Buccaneers (6-2), +2500
T-8. Seahawks (5-2), +2500
9. Chargers (5-3), +2800
T-10. Patriots (6-2), +3000
T-10. 49ers (5-3), +3000
T-11. Jaguars (4-3), +6600
T-11. Steelers (4-3), +6600
T-11. Texans (3-4), +6600
12. Commanders (3-5), +8000
13. Bears (4-3), +12500
T-14. Falcons (3-4), +15000
T-14. Cowboys (3-4), +15000
15. Vikings (3-4), +25000
16. Bengals (3-5), +30000
T-17. Panthers (4-4), +50000
T-17. Cardinals (2-5), +50000
T-18. Raiders (2-5), +100000
T-18. Browns (2-6), +100000
T-18. Dolphins (2-6), +100000
T-18. Giants (2-6), +100000
T-18. Saints (1-7), +100000
T-18. Titans (1-7), +100000
T-18. Jets (1-7), +100000
For anyone who got the Patriots at +15000 at BetMGM as recently as September 21, congratulations to you! You’re likely holding on to a ticket that will have big buy-back potential in the coming weeks as the Patriots look to continue stacking wins against bad teams.
Of the remaining games on their schedule, New England plays just three teams with better Super Bowl odds:
- Week 10 @ Tampa Bay
- Week 15 vs. Buffalo
- Week 16 @ Baltimore
One of those games is against a division rival they’ve already beaten on the road in the Bills, and the other is a team ravished by injury whose Super Bowl odds are inflated based on reputation alone in the Ravens. Add in a Bucs team whose offense just lost its WR1 for the season while their WR2 remains out after suffering a dislocated ankle last season, and the Patriots’ remaining opponents continue to look laughably weak compared to the other contending teams at the top of the AFC.
Make no mistake about it - competing for the top seed in the conference this season is 100% in play for New England. The only team in front of them at the moment is the Colts, who have Daniel Jones under center playing at a level that doesn’t feel sustainable for Daniel Jones. Not only that, Indy has games remaining against the Steelers, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers, as well as two against the Texans and two against the Jaguars. That’s eight games where you could feasibly pick the other team with conviction, regardless of how well running back Jonathan Taylor is playing.
Call it hyperbolic. Call it ahead of schedule. Call it whatever you want.
The Patriots at +3000 to win the Super Bowl is great value, and you should hop on it now before that number shrinks in the coming weeks.
His team may have just blown the doors off the best defense in the NFL, and his quarterback might have a real chance of winning MVP, but the message remains the same for head coach MIke Vrabel amid all the positive vibes raining down on the Patriots by fans and media.
“You have what I believe to be the MVP at quarterback, you're the Coach of the Year - how do you keep a level head and let [the team] know that every year you're not going to be able to get here?” WEEI’s Chris Curtis asked Vrabel during his weekly visit with The Greg Hill Show. “You've been relatively healthy, you get to this point of the year, what has your messaging been? And has that shifted at all with the recent success?”
“No, I don't think it's changed,” said Vrabel. “I think it's just stayed consistent, that this league - if you sleep on this league, you're going to have bad results. And no matter who you play, what team it is, there's going to be things that you have to do each and every week. And so every week is its own challenge.
“We have been relatively healthy, which has been great. But I think that if we were not healthy, I think guys would have been ready to go in there. They prepare as starters each and every week. We're getting a lot of contributions from a lot of different people, and that's the thing that you have to continue to do, is that when you get an opportunity, that you take advantage of your opportunity. Continue to practice our identity through meetings and walk-through practices, but there's a long way to go, and my job is to make sure that we're focused on that each and every week, and not get too far ahead of ourselves.”
As of publishing, the Patriots are a 5.5-point favorite over Atlanta for Week 9 at Gillette Stadium, sitting at -240 on the moneyline. The total is set at 45.5.
If Falcons starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is unable to go again on Sunday, look for that number to climb for New England even further.
Tune in each and every Monday throughout the football season to Patriots Monday on WEEI. Head coach Mike Vrabel joins The Greg Hill Show at 6:30 a.m. ET, and quarterback Drake Maye joins WEEI Afternoons.