Depending on where you’re shopping for odds, the Patriots (11-2) have jumped between being a 1.5-point underdog and a 1.5-point favorite in advance of their Week 15 game against the Bills (9-4).
During media availabilities on Wednesday, New England was sitting in that slight home underdog role at most sportsbooks, which begged the question for players and coaches:
How do they feel about being considered a home underdog in the midst of a 10-game winning streak against a team they’ve already beaten on the road this season?
Turns out, they kind of love it.
“Anytime you're at home and you're an underdog, it gives you something to play for a little bit,” second-year quarterback Drake Maye told the media after practice. “Whatever the underdog and whatever they set the line at, it's us versus them, regardless. When we put the ball down, it's going to be 0-0.
“For 60 minutes, we know we’ve got to play a full game. So, they’ve got some great players over there. They’ve got some great coaches, and they've won the division for five years. So, we’ve got something that we need to go take, and we know it’s going to be hard to do, but we're up for it.”
With a win, the Patriots will clinch a division title for the first time since 2019 - their last of a run of 17 division titles in 19 seasons. Since then, Buffalo has won the AFC East each season, led by their perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen. But for the first four of those five division titles, Allen had now-Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs as his go-to weapon. At that time, Diggs was playing at an All-Pro level while helping push Buffalo into the conversation of Super Bowl contender for the first time since the early ’90s.
Now, Diggs is playing at a Pro Bowl level while donning the Flying Elvis. He, too, loves the underdog moniker.
“You guys are actually underdogs this Sunday - is this something you’re aware of?” Diggs was asked at his locker before practice.
“I didn’t know - that’s the first time I’ve heard it, but…good,” said Diggs.
“Have you felt like or have you sensed at all that this team plays with sort of a ‘nobody believed in us’ mentality, or chip?” he was asked in a follow-up.
“Edge - a real edge,” said Diggs. “I think - that’s why I said it was good. This team is full of [players] that were, like, cast-offs and people who were cut, or people who didn’t necessarily get the opportunity that they wanted, or however you dice it up. And I feel like that’s good for us.
“Nobody believed in us but us, you know? The record is surprising to everybody, and all we did was take it one game at a time. And I think we’re gonna do the same thing with this one.”
When head coach Mike Vrabel was asked about it during his pre-practice press conference, he was a bit more dismissive.
“No,” Vrabel said when asked if he pays attention to point spreads. “I mean, it gets brought to attention. I don't think that - every week you see in this league that records really don't mean anything, the point spreads and survivor pools get blown up every week and all that other stuff.
“So, we're just trying to focus on our preparation here and getting back into it. Had a good day Monday, excited about the meetings thus far today, and then progress through the week.”
As of publishing, the Patriots are back to being the underdogs, sitting at +1 at BetMGM and +1.5 at FanDuel. Only minus-odds available for the Patriots on the moneyline at BetMGM (-105), while plus-odds are still available for New England at FanDuel (+100). With both teams sporting MVP candidates at quarterback, the total at both books currently sits at 49.5, despite the potential for a wintery mix in Foxborough on Sunday.
Regardless of where this line lands, it feels like we’re in the early stages of the first great AFC East QB rivalry since Jim Kelly vs. Dan Marino throughout the late ’80s and early ’90s (Brady vs. Manning was only a divisional rivalry for one season, as the Colts moved to the AFC South ahead of the 2002 season - and let’s be honest, Brady wasn’t Brady yet).
Before their win at Buffalo earlier this season, Maye and Allen had gone head-to-head just one other time - a late December game at Highmark Stadium in Week 16 of the 2024 season. And while New England ultimately lost the game, they put a scare into the Bills with a final score of 24-21. Maye was the better QB on the field that Sunday, finishing with a better QBR and passer rating while also accounting for more passing yards, passing touchdowns and a higher completion percentage. Both QBs ran 6 times for 30 yards.
It was an L in the record book, but it was yet another reminder from Maye’s rookie campaign of the type of player he could become one day, elevating his game against better competition and giving his team a chance to win regardless of the opponent.
Fast forward to Sunday, and Maye has already ascended to the level Patriots fans thought he would, way ahead of schedule.
Maye outdueling Allen to clinch an AFC East crown in Week 15 would go a long way towards vaulting this QB rivalry in the league-wide conversation.
Tune in each and every Monday throughout the football season to Patriots Monday on WEEI. Head coach Mike Vrabel joins The Greg Hill Show at 6:30 a.m. ET, and quarterback Drake Maye joins WEEI Afternoons.