(WWJ/AP) Some health experts are warning to expect a second surge of COVID-19 cases as states reengage their economies — but how likely is that to happen in Michigan?
Michigan is beginning to reopen for business under Under Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's 'MI Safe Start' plan, with construction sites busy again, and autoworkers getting back on the job this week.
Dr. Laraine Washer, medical director of infection control at Michigan Medicine, says she is "quite concerned" about the possibly of a second surge of COVID-19.
"We know with novel infections that we have seen in the past there is often a second surge," Washer told WWJ Health Reporter Dr. Deanna Lites, pointing to the H1N1 flu of 2009 as an example.
"We saw an initial emergence of the virus in the springtime, and when seasonal respiratory viruses came back in the fall and summer, we saw a peak that was above what we originally saw," Washer said.
To lower the risk of a second wave, Washer said it's important that Michigan and other states provide broad access to testing determine who is infected, and that all of us continue to practice preventative measures, including wearing masks, and social distancing as much as possible.
"This is important because people who feel well and are without symptoms, cough or fever, can still spread the virus to others," Washer said.
Several hopeful signs are emerging that COVID-19 is on a steady decline in Michigan. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services on Sunday reported 382 more residents have tested positive for the virus; the lowest daily number of cases reported since March 23. Another optimistic statistic: 22,686 people are considered recovered from COVID-19, according to the health department.
While this is encouraging, Washer says we can still expect half of all COVID-19 cases in Michigan to occur past the peak.
"Our fight against COVID is not over, and we have to much more to learn about this disease," Washer said. "But, as we've been saying all along, the best way to stay safe is to stay at home as much as possible, and wash your hands your hands thoroughly as much as possible."
Gov. Whitmer has said she's just as anxious as anyone to reopen Michigan, but stresses we must do so slowly to avoid another surge. "I am working closely with health care experts and epidemiologists to closely monitor Michigan's progress in the fight against COVID-19," the governor said last week, as she announced an extension of what she's now calling the "Safer at Home" order, through May 28.
"The worst thing we can do is open up in a way that causes a second wave of infections and death, puts health care workers at further risk, and wipes out all the progress we've made," she added. "That's why we will continue to monitor the spread of this virus, hospital capacity, testing rates, and more as we work toward reaching the 'improving' phase."
About half of U.S. states are now easing their shutdowns to get their economies restarted and cell phone data showing that people are becoming restless and increasingly leaving home, public health authorities are worried.
"If we relax these measures without having the proper public health safeguards in place, we can expect many more cases and, unfortunately, more deaths," said Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy with the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington.
Cases have continued to rise steadily in places such as Iowa and Missouri since the governors began reopening, while new infections have yo-yoed in Georgia, Tennessee and Texas.
Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University's Center for Infection and Immunity said he is most worried about two things: the reopening of bars, where people crowd together and lose their inhibitions, and large gatherings such as sporting events, concerts and plays. "We're risking a backslide that will be intolerable," he said.
A Michigan bar and restaurant industry group said Friday its members are ready and waiting reopen for dine-in service on May 29.
