(WWJ) - Farmers in the Mitten State said they won't be able to make up for almost one third of the world's wheat supply that was disrupted after Russia invaded Ukraine more than a month ago.
Experts said the ongoing war between the two countries has caused major uncertainty for almost 30% of the world's wheat production and as much as Midwest farmers try to ramp up their own crop, making up for such a loss is almost impossible.
Bloomberg News reported that wheat exports from Russia remain largely unaffected, but tightening sanctions may cause further issues.
Scott Swinton, an agricultural economist at Michigan State University, said to the Capital News Service that Ukraine and Russia grow soft winter wheat. The crop is planted in fall and harvested in summer, but war has disrupted production and Michigan farmers are too late in the season to plant the crop.
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In a chain reaction to the crisis unfolding overseas, the limited supply and a near-constant demand for wheat is causing prices to increase here at home.
“When Michigan farmers planted their winter wheat last fall, prices were around $7.20 a bushel,” Swinton said. “A week or two after the Ukraine war started, they spiked to $13 a bushel.”
In 2021, Michigan was documented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to have produced $281.2 million worth of wheat.
Ukraine in comparison exported $5.1 billion worth of wheat, the American Farm Bureau reported.
That left a big hole to fill, Swinton said.
Theresa Sisung, an industry specialist with the Michigan Farm Bureau, said to the Capital News Service that prices have balanced themselves out since sky rocketing to their highest point in March, but they still remain higher than average.
The Farm Bureau predicts the current price will land around $11 a bushel when farmers begin harvesting and sell their crop in May.
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While some crop has had their price locked in prior to the Russian-Ukraine war, other farmers who can still dictate their contracts are cashing in on the higher prices.
Swinton said whether or not the war continues overseas, prices will continue to rise; if the war drags on, Ukraine will be unable to harvest in the summer season and if the war ends quickly, Ukraine will need to take time to recover and address humanitarian relief and infrastructure damage.
“Even if the war were to end today, I don’t think that Ukrainian farmers would be able to harvest as much as usual,” he said.