President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a storm of tariffs since the start of his second term in office has resulted in annual tax increases of over $1,000 per U.S. household, according to a new report.
This analysis from the non-partisan Tax Foundation group found that the tariffs amounted to an average tax increase of $1,000 per household last year and $1,300 per household this year. In 2026, the tariffs are expected to “reduce after-tax incomes for all income groups,” with the top 1% seeing a smaller income reduction than other income brackets.
“Notably, these averages do not capture additional costs to U.S. households stemming from higher-priced alternative goods and loss of consumer choice,” the Tax Foundation said.
Taxpayers might be wondering about projected tax decreases touted by the Trump administration. According to the White House, the “Working Families Tax Cuts Act” is expected to deliver “the biggest tax refund season ever,” with average refunds projected to rise by $1,000 or more.
However, the Tax Foundation said “the Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.”
“Under the tariffs imposed and scheduled as of February 6, 2026, the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports rises to 13.5%, and the average effective tariff rate, reflecting behavioral responses, rises to 9.9%—the highest average rate since 1946,” the Tax Foundation said.
It called the Trump tariffs “the largest U.S. tax increase as a percent of GDP (0.54% for 2026) since 1993.”
Audacy reported last month that U.S. consumers have been bearing a significant part of the economic burden brought on by Trump’s tariff moves, citing a report from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a Germany-based think tank. Its report found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the tariff burden, with the other 96% passed through to U.S. buyers.
“Contrary to U.S. government rhetoric, the cost of U.S. import tariffs [is] not borne by foreign exporters,” Kiel said. This, in turn, has hurt the U.S. economy, according to the think tank.
“Tariffs are creating GREAT WEALTH, and unprecedented National Security for the USA,” said President Donald Trump in a December Truth Social post.
At that time, polls showed that Americans were feeling down about the economy and a YouGov poll from last November indicated that just 13% of Americans wanted tariffs on foreign goods to be increased.
Gallup polling released this week found that Americans still broadly anticipate economic strain this year, with a clear majority expecting inflation to rise and half believing that unemployment will increase. Economic outlooks vary greatly by political party, with Republicans more likely to have a sunny outlook than Democrats or independents. Pew Research Center polling from earlier this month also found that most Americans continue to hold negative views of the nation’s economy, as they have for the last six years.
Some of the rapid changes to tariffs, as well as the president’s tariff threats, have been hard to follow.
Through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), tariffs have been imposed on major U.S. trading partners, including China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, the Tax Foundation explained. Trump has also threatened and imposed further Section 232 tariffs (meant to be imposed in response to national security threats) on autos, heavy trucks, steel, aluminum, lumber, furniture, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, copper, and more.
While the tariffs are expected to raise $2 trillion in revenue from 2026-2035 “on a conventional basis,” the Tax Foundation said they are also expected to reduce U.S. gross domestic product (GDP, or the total value of goods and services provided in a country) by 0.5%, “all before foreign retaliation.” After accounting for negative economic effects, the estimated revenue dropped to $1.6 trillion.
Trump’s ability to impose the IEEPA tariffs has also been called into question, and the conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court is expected to decide on the matter soon. If the court decides that he does not have that power and the tariffs are ended, the tax increases to U.S. households will be smaller at $400 in 2026, according to the Tax Foundation.
A recent Marquette Law School Poll national survey also found that 63% of adults think the U.S. Supreme Court should uphold a lower court ruling that limits the president’s authority to impose tariffs. That’s compared to 36% who think the Court should rule for the president.