A new international economics study finds that people diagnosed with cancer are about 14 percent more likely to commit a crime in the years that follow, a phenomenon researchers have dubbed the “Breaking Bad Effect.”
The findings are based on long-term population data from Denmark, where researchers tracked criminal records and health outcomes over time.
The study analyzed nationwide administrative data, comparing people who received a cancer diagnosis with otherwise similar individuals who did not. Researchers found a consistent increase in criminal activity following a diagnosis, particularly for financially motivated offenses, even after accounting for income, employment, age, and prior criminal history.
Economists behind the research say the rise does not suggest that most cancer patients engage in crime. Instead, they point to the financial and psychological strain of a serious illness, including lost income, mounting medical costs, and disruptions to daily life, as likely contributors for a small subset of patients.
The effect was most pronounced among working-age adults and those without strong financial safety nets. Researchers emphasized that Denmark’s universal healthcare system reduces medical costs compared to many countries, suggesting the pressures driving the increase may extend beyond health expenses alone.
Experts caution the findings should be viewed as a socioeconomic signal rather than a moral judgment, and say the results highlight the importance of social support systems during major health crises. The study adds to growing research on how severe life shocks can influence behavior in unexpected ways.