Kalshi, one of the largest prediction market platforms, has bad news for the current White House administration as its latest odds that President Donald Trump will be impeached before the end of his second term have never been higher.
Kalshi currently places the odds of Trump being impeached at 69%, the biggest share since the market was created in November 2024. And it's not just the action in Iran that's soaring the predictions.
The figure has steadily risen over time, growing from 33% the week after Trump won the election to 59% a year after his inauguration.
Kalshi is only one of the sites where people are placing wagers about Trump's future in the Oval Office. Bettors on Polymarket can wager on the same question, and the odds there now stand at 46% for the 79-year-old Republican president being formally charged by the House of Representatives. The Polymarket question was created on Thursday, and the odds of impeachment and removal have hovered around 50% since then.
Impeaching the president, per the Constitution, requires a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives. A two-thirds vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove from office. Many bettors note the chances of the first thing happening are much higher than the second.
Grounds for impeachment include treason, bribery, abuse of power, obstruction of justice, and other 'high crimes and misdemeanors.'
So, why do these odds matter? It's not like people placing bets have insider trading-level knowledge about the mood of Congress. But as Newsweek noted, it does signal something important.
"Approval ratings often shape political momentum, especially heading into a midterm cycle. With the 2026 elections approaching, shifts among independents could prove more consequential than loyalty within Trump's base," Newsweek wrote in a report.
The billionaire president is also no stranger to impeachment. During his first term, he became the only president in U.S. history to be impeached twice — in 2019 for allegedly pressuring Ukraine's president to investigate Joe Biden and in 2021 over claims that he incited the January 6 Capitol riot.
The Senate acquitted him both times.