The Lions have their QB of 2021 in Jared Goff. Maybe even their QB of 2022. But do they have their quarterback of the future?
That's the big question for GM Brad Holmes as he plots his plan with the seventh overall pick Thursday night. Because if the answer is no, now might be the best time for the Lions to draft Goff's successor.
"I would take a quarterback, I would," former Browns GM and three-time Super Bowl winner Michael Lombardi told the Stoney & Jansen Show Thursday. "I would take the quarterback that I felt (best about). Because here’s the reality of Jared Goff, he’s really good in play-action pass. When the game speeds up on third down and the protection doesn't hold up, that’s when he falls apart. There’s a reason the Rams got rid of him, because they couldn't run the drop-back pass game. He wouldn’t hold the ball long enough to make the tough throws, and that’s a problem. That’s a real problem."
Holmes believes in Goff more than the outside observer. More than almost anyone, it seems. Not only did he lobby for the Rams to draft Goff first overall in 2016, but he watched Goff take the team to the Super Bowl two years later. He's seen the two-time Pro Bowler at his best. Holmes made it clear after the Matthew Stafford trade that the Lions considered Goff a big part of the return.
"He’s a proven winner," Holmes said. "His resume speaks for itself. He’s going to be a big part of what we’re doing going forward."
Holmes has also seen Goff at his worst, and that's the most recent impression. Of the 13 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts over the last two seasons, Goff has the third worst passer rating (88.1). If Justin Fields and/or Trey Lance is staring Holmes in the face at seventh overall Thursday night, doesn't he have to consider pulling the trigger?
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"And the other factor for me, if I were the GM of the Detroit Lions, have you ever watched Jared Goff play in cold weather?" Lombardi said. "Have you looked at his numbers when he plays in less than 40 degrees? It’s not good. We might have to go to Chicago, we might have to go to Green Bay, we might have to go to New York. We might have to go to some cold-weather place to play and I’m gonna be driving to the stadium worried like crazy about a guy that doesn’t like to play in cold weather. Remember the last time he played in Chicago when he was with the Rams? And that was when they were having a great season. So for me, I think it’s quarterback."
Goff's most recent numbers in cold-weather games are actually pretty good, including a strong performance in a playoff loss last season at Lambeau Field. Just a couple weeks after having surgery on his broken right thumb, no less. But overall, Lombardi has a point. In seven career sub-40 degree games, Goff has as many picks as touchdowns and a passer rating of 69.12. Which sort of makes sense for a quarterback who was born and bred in sunny California.
But that's the minutiae. The heart of the matter is whether the Lions have a quarterback they can build around. For as much as Goff has accomplished in the NFL, you could make the case that Fields, and maybe even Lance, has a higher ceiling right now. The Lions are tied to Goff for the next two seasons after restructuring his contract in March, but that's hardly a problem in terms of nurturing a young quarterback. The rookie could learn under the vet in 2021 and take over in 2022, and the Lions could walk away from Goff's contract at a pretty minimal cost in 2023.
By then, Detroit's roster should be ready to win. And the club would still have three more seasons of a quarterback on a rookie contract.
"You can build your team," Lombardi said. "You hired a head coach who’s on a six-year contract, you can build the team and then you have a rookie contract to build the team around with a lot of cap flexibility. That would be a smart move to make, assuming you liked one of the two quarterbacks (available at No. 7), whether it’s Fields or Lance."
One other factor to consider as Holmes and Lions face a potentially franchise-altering decision Thursday night?
"Chris Spielman is going to have a huge impact on this draft," Lombardi said. "Huge. They didn’t bring him in there to be a cheerleader and he’s not in there to not give his opinion, so he’s going to have a huge say. He lives in Columbus, he knows Fields as well as anybody. We’ll see what it all means."