This is not to say Thomas Harper hasn't played well. This is not to say that at all.
In fact, the second-year safety who joined the Lions after training camp has played as well as anybody could have expected in place of the injured Kerby Joseph. He has shown a nose for the ball and a feel for the defense. Over six starts, Harper has done his job, and done it soundly.
Just a couple weeks ago, Harper made one of the biggest plays in the Lions' narrow win over the Giants without even touching the ball. With the defense desperate for a stop on 4th and goal late in the fourth quarter, Harper sniffed out where wide receiver Darius Slayton was going and alerted corner Rock Ya-Sin before the snap to essentially swap assignments. Harper stepped up to take away a slant to Slayton, allowing Ya-Sin to drop into the end zone and deny a pass to tight end Theo Johnson.
Ya-Sin, the seven-year vet, said after the game that "it was really Harp’s play … just Harp running the defense." Harper said that once he saw Slayton in a cut alignment off the ball, he realized Slayton was "probably looking to run inside, away from leverage" against man coverage. Asked if could have made that ID and adjustment when he first stepped in for Joseph almost two months ago, Harper smiled and said, "Probably not."
"Just the confidence to make the call and trust what I see, for one. And two, I’m probably out there trying to get myself right, being that I wasn’t here for camp," he said. "That’s something that I had to slowly work toward. Just being the general of the backend as far as knowing everybody else’s job and trying to get everyone else lined up, trying to communicate, I think that’s definitely where I’ve grown the most, and where I can continue to improve."
This is to say -- with all that said -- that the Lions miss Joseph more by the week.
Their defense has produced one takeaway in the past four games, a diving pick by Harper against the Giants. Joseph, the NFL leader in picks last year, had three interceptions himself through five games this year before re-injuring his knee in Detroit's Week 6 loss to the Chiefs.
As a team, the Lions had nine takeaways in the first five games. They have four in seven games since -- over which time they've gone 3-4, their worst stretch of football under Dan Campbell since early in the 2022 season. With their pass rush wilting and their defense struggling to get off the field, the takeaways that generally cover for that have dried up.
If the Lions don't force a turnover or two Thursday night and their defense doesn't change its colors against the Cowboys and the No. 1 passing attack in the NFL, they will likely wake up Friday at 7-6 -- down from 12-1 a year ago and 9-3 the year before that -- and facing an improbable climb to the playoffs.
But it's not just about the picks. This is about one or two plays a game that separate a promising player who's growing on the job from a proven All-Pro. Harper is still haunted by one such play last Thursday. On Jordan Love's 22-yard touchdown throw on fourth down to Dontayvion Wicks, Harper flew into the frame and had a chance to break up the pass and bail out Brian Branch who had lost the ball at the last moment, but made a young mistake at the most pivotal moment.
"I’ve had nightmares about that," he said. I think I was right on time, I just made the wrong decision as far as trying to go for the pick instead of trying to hit him. Yeah, man, that one haunts me. I just gotta know it's fourth down and an incomplete pass is just as good as a turnover in that situation, if not better. Fourth down, just get the ball down."
The catch was controversial, but was upheld upon review. Joseph, in the same situation, likely either reacts a tick more quickly and arrives a split-second sooner, or has the presence of mind to simply break up the pass. As the review was taking place, all Harper could think to himself was, "Why didn’t I just separate the man from the ball? Why did I go for the pick?"
"Honestly to this day, still have nightmares about it," he said. "And probably will 'till the end of the season, just so I can learn from it as well, not just be down on it all the time, and not let it happen again … I was right there!"
Later that quarter, the Lions turned a 3rd and 7 for the Packers deep in Detroit territory into 3rd and 3 -- and ultimately a touchdown on 4th and 1 -- when the defense had 12 men on the field, six of them defensive backs. There's plenty of blame to go around here, starting with coordinator Kelvin Sheppard for rotating too many corners. But Harper was tapping his chest when the penalty was announced as if to say my bad.
"I feel like as far as me being the quarterback of the backend and making sure everything is good and getting everybody lined up, I probably should have seen it," he said. "So I took a little bit of the blame on myself, that’s all that was. I just felt like, I gotta know that."
It was another slip-up on the part of a defense missing arguably the best free safety in the game. The first would have negated a touchdown altogether. The second could have turned a touchdown into a field goal. Neither one was solely on Harper, but both could have been plausibly erased by Joseph. They added up to a potential 11-point swing in a crushing seven-point loss for the Lions.
Joseph will miss his seventh straight game Thursday night. It's not that the Lions will be in a bind because of Harper, who prior to last week graded out as a top-10 safety in the league this season, per PFF. It's that they will miss Joseph's instincts, poise and playmaking chops against a high-flying offense with two of the best receivers in the NFL in what is basically a must-win game.
Joseph hopes to return soon. With the Lions sliding, he can't return soon enough.