A Mason-Dixon poll shows Governor Edwards topping Eddie Rispone 51%-43% and Ralph Abraham 53%-38% in a potential post-primary run-off.
Political analyst Bernie Pinsonat warns it’s just too early to trust any run-off polling. He says given the poor track record of Louisiana governors in run-offs, Edwards should do all he can to avoid one.
“Polls about the run-off really don’t reflect what the race will be about,” says Pinsonat. “The race will go into another dimension. The Governor is a Democrat, he’s running for re-election in a red state.”
No Louisiana Governor has won a run-off since the state adopted the jungle primary system in the 70s.
Pinsonat says the dynamics of the race will shift significantly in a run-off because national Republicans, smelling blood in the water, will pour cash into the state and attempt to paint Edwards as a liberal.
“The Governor will try to keep it on his record, but the Republicans will be running against Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, AOC, and the whole crowd in Washington,” says Pinsonat.
President Trump is rallying Republicans in Lake Charles Friday, but Pinsonat says to expect the Commander in Chief to take a much more active role in a hypothetical run-off.
“He may be at the Lakefront, he may be up in Baton Rouge, probably up in Shreveport,” says Pinsonat. “I would think that you probably get two or three stops out of him.”
The primary is set for this Saturday, and a potential run-off would be held on November 16th.