More than a decade of uninterrupted growth in New Orleans' population since Katrina appears to have ended.
For the first time since the storm, the U.S. Census Bureau shows the metro New Orleans area is shrinking.
In fact, Louisiana had some of the steepest population losses in the nation last year. And, Demographer Greg Rigamer says the issue is a function of jobs throughout the state.
"We particularly see it in Jefferson and Orleans, where we're losing a bit of population because people are pursuing better paying jobs elsewhere. And, when I say elsewhere, I mean, for the most part, out of state."
The loss was relatively small in Orleans Parish, where 1,000 people left between 2016 and 2018...530 last year. Jefferson lost almost 2,300 residents last year alone.
"I think people leave because of economic opportunities elsewhere," says Rigamer. "I think people follow jobs. People follow money."
"We've had significant recovery in the city for the past 14 years since Katrina. But, that is slowing down. We see a lot of development in Orleans and we see a lot of signs that are good. But we still aren't producing the number of jobs, particularly good paying jobs, that are really needed to sustain growth."
The census numbers suggest that New Orleans may be returning to the overall downward trend it had shown since its population peaked in the 60s.
"Recovery is a little bit different than growth," Rigamer says. "We're trying to get back to where we were in New Orleans, and we're still a little bit lower -- Jefferson is, as well -- and what we need to do is improve the economy, have more better paying jobs to start attracting people back to the metropolitan area."
"So, I think we have to be a bit more focused on economic development and a bit more successful at trying to generate or attract the industries that offer good paying jobs. I don't think things are gloom and doom for the city or the metropolitan area. But, it's a wake up call saying that economic development initiatives have to focus on better paying jobs."
The one bright spot in the metro area is St. Tammany, which continued the steady growth it has seen for nearly two decades, adding almost 2,300 people last year.
The metropolitan area includes Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist and St. James parishes.