According to JMC Analytics Governor Edwards is polling at 48% to Eddie Rispone's at 46% with a little under three weeks to Election Day.
Pollster John Couvillon says it’s the first time he’s seen Edwards make real progress towards the 50% + 1 he will need on November 16th to keep his job.
“For every poll that I had done in the primary, I saw Governor Edwards consistently stuck in the mid to upper 40s. I’m now starting to see him inch up towards the 50% mark,” says Couvillon.
Edwards has 50 percent of the vote when Edwards leaning voters were reallocated to the Governor.
Rispone is nipping at the Governor’s heels, and just outside of the margin of error to win. Couvillon says the Baton Rouge businessman needs two things to happen to overtake Edwards.
“He needs a strong Republican turnout, perhaps even stronger than what there was in the primary, and number two, I think a full-throated endorsement by Ralph Abraham would be crucial,” says Couvillon.
Abraham endorsed Rispone after the primary, but it’s unclear whether or not the Congressman plans on campaigning for his fellow Republican.
With only six percent of voters who remain undecided, Couvillon says that means this race will come down to party turnout, not persuasive and flashy TV ads.
“What it does say is that those ads will have a much-diminished impact in terms of influencing the final outcome than they would have, say, in the first week of the run-off,” says Couvillon.