Invest 95 near the Bahamas has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. This title designates a system that is not developed yet but will likely soon become a tropical depression or tropical storm and affect land.
It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Humberto by Saturday and move over Florida, then near the Carolinas as a weaker system early next week.
Currently, no major impact is expected in the New Orleans area, but there is still some uncertainty.
That's because this is not a developed system, and computer models are not picking up perfectly on its still-murky center of circulation. Most models are bringing it well east of Louisiana toward Florida, or even east of Florida similar to the path Dorian took.
Until there is a defined low-pressure center of circulation, there will likely continue to be a spread in the forecast paths from computer models.
The scenario that the NHC path is based on counts on an upper high guiding the system to the north and then northeast, while an upper low maintains its position over the Gulf of Mexico.
Impacts for the Bahamas and Florida include rain, at the least, along with gusty winds and possible storm surge this weekend.
Elsewhere in the tropics... there is another tropical wave far out in the central Atlantic with a medium chance of development.