In an afternoon briefing Tuesday, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell recommended canceling all large gatherings in 2020, making a point to name French Quarter Fest, Jazz Fest and Essence Fest. I believe many of these festivals were going to be canceled outright regardless, because of production challenges with talent, venues, and the financial risk of putting on a large event without knowing how much revenue could be recouped amid the uncertainty of the times.
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The question now is, how do we define “large?” I would caution everyone to be strategic about the answer, because it will send a message. How do you answer that question, how do you make that statement if you’re not prepared to say whether or not a Saints game qualifies as a large gathering? Why is the Mayor prepared to make the decision about large outdoor events, but not large indoor events? I believe it’s because the large outdoor events were likely to cancel anyway. The Mayor characterizes this as a collaboration - I find that interesting. These decisions are being made by government leaders who lack the information needed to make them. They are inadequately informed.
Consider the following. A group of Harvard disease experts revealed yesterday that they looked at various computer models to see how the virus might spread over the next five years. The models considered factors like whether or not the virus is seasonal, how long immunity might last for recovered patients, and the intensity and timing of control measures like social distancing and stay-at-home orders. Based on the growing number of cases around the globe, researchers said it's unlikely that the virus will be eliminated soon, and social distancing may be needed from time to time to lessen the burden on hospitals if the virus sticks around. But under current critical care capacities, the overall duration of this pandemic could last into 2022, requiring social distancing measures to be in place 25-75% of that time.
The researchers go on to say that social distancing measures that are too strict could actually drag things out by slowing the formation of herd immunity. In one scenario that assumed 20 weeks of strict control measures and extensive social distancing, a resurgence followed the lifting of those measures that was nearly as bad as the peak of the uncontrolled epidemic. The social distancing was so effective that virtually no herd immunity was built. Researchers don’t endorse one path or the other.
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That brings me back to what I said before. These decisions being made right now are being made without all the necessary information, so why make them now, so far in advance? There’s a lot of time between now and then, there’s a lot happening and a lot of smart people working on this around the clock. Information is power. The more relevant, credible information we have available to us, the better off we are in making these decisions about what to cancel and when.
I warn those that say these are public policy decisions - they are not. They are political decisions and they are made in the context of political theater. Let’s call it what it is and stop kidding ourselves that it’s anything otherwise.
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