There's little argument that Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Thomas has a league-high 321 receptions during this three seasons in New Orleans, also accumulating 3,787 yards and 23 touchdowns. His name often gets thrown in with Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins when discussing the best players at the position. With a resume that shiny, it almost seems like a forgone conclusion that the Saints would do anything to keep Thomas in their uniform for the foreseeable future. It's not the automatic decision many expect and there's good reason for skepticism around the Saints possibly making Thomas the highest paid receiver in the league.
Beckham set the new bar for elite receiver money last season when he signed a five-year deal with the Giants totaling $90 million, with a $20 milling signing bonus and $65 million guaranteed. That means Beckham's yearly average works out to $18 million per year, before incentives. Thomas, who is entering the final season of his four-year rookie deal, will assuredly be looking for more money than that during his contract negotiations and, frankly, he should be. There's nothing wrong with somebody as exceptionally gifted and productive as Thomas looking for the biggest payday possible. What's much less clear is whether paying around 10 percent of your salary cap to one receiver is a smart investment for the Saints or any franchise.
Front offices across the NFL are grappling with this reality much like they have been with running backs over the past decade. Teams now realize, rightfully, that you can get top-level production from the running back spot for bottom-level prices. Alvin Kamara is perhaps the best example of this, a third-round gem who is already one of the most dynamic backs in the league entering his third season. Kamara is set to make $1.05 million with the Saints in 2019, and $1.2 million in 2020. No, it's not easy to find Kamara-type forces in the draft, especially in the third round, just like teams aren't falling into Thomas-level production from every second round receiver they draft. However, the smartest front offices in the NFL are giving themselves as many opportunities as possible to strike gold with their rookie selections.
The Patriots are the best example of this, and they have done a masterful job of leveraging the compensatory pick system to their advantage. According to the compensatory pick formula devised by the NFL, teams who lose more big-money free agents than they sign in a given year are awarded extra draft picks between the third and seventh rounds.. In short, for every Thomas, Kamara, or other high-priced free agent the Saints lose they'll get back that many extra mid-round draft picks, if they don't sign somebody equally valuable on the free agent market. The initial reaction is to dismiss a third round pick as any sort of fair compensation for losing a player of Thomas' value, but when you factor in the $20 million or so in cap space team frees up then it looks much more equitable.