The NFL regular season is almost here, with that, season-long future bets are becoming the most popular among sports bettors. While most sports books will offer Super Bowl odds, there are plenty of other bets that you can make and profit from.
The most popular bets so far are on the Chiefs and Eagles; they’re getting the most support for NFL Super Bowl winner. You can also bet individual performance outcomes that have Patrick Mahomes leading all QB betting markets, that’s including passing yardage, touchdowns and postseason awards.
We’ll look at some season-long bets that include teams that will exceed their win expectations and my pick to win this season’s MVP award.
Win Totals:
Saints Over 9.5 Wins (+105):
I have to get at least one Saints bet this season, and I think the Saints winming 10 games or more is a reasonable bet to double your money. Expectations are high on Airline Drive especially with the additional of Derek Carr at QB.
According to Warren Sharp’s projected strength of schedule, the Saints have the easiest schedule in 2023. Of the seven teams he projected to have the easiest schedules in 2022, six of those teams went to the playoffs.
The Saints will benefit from playing weak NFC and AFC South divisions in which Carr will be the best QB on the field outside of arguably Trevor Lawrence with the Jaguars. The only concern I would have is head coach Dennis Allen has never won more seven games in a season as an NFL head coach. But, this is, by far, his most talented team, so I think a 10-7 record is very doable.
Texans Over 6.5 Wins (+110):
You’re probably wondering, the Texans? Weren’t they the worst team in the AFC last season? Well that was last season and new head coach Demeco Ryans takes over bringing a winning culture from the San Francisco 49ers. More importantly, Bobby Slowik will join the Texans staff as offensive coordinator. He served under Kyle Shanahan last season as the 49ers passing coordinator.
Like the Saints, the Texans will benefit from an easy schedule with the projected 7th easiest in the NFL. They’ll face rookie Colts QB Anthony Richardson in Week 2 and have the entire NFC South in four straight consecutive games between Weeks 5-9 with a bye week in between them.
The only concern for the Texans is who will be starting at QB - Davis Mills and rookie QB CJ Stroud? Mills gives the Texans a better chance at winning early in the season against Baltimore and Jacksonville, but Stroud offers the bigger upside as we’ve seen from highly drafted QBs like Joe Burrow, Carson Wentz and Robert Griffin III in their rookie seasons.
Buccaneers Under 6.5 Wins (-140):
Life without Tom Brady could be tough for Tampa Bay fans as they enter this season with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask as their starting QB in Week 1.
While the rest of the NFC South benefits from an easy schedule, the Bucs won’t have that. Tampa Bay will face each NFC divisional winner, since they won the NFC South last season (projected #17 easiest). That means, the Eagles, 49ers and Vikings will all get tee offs against them. Head coach Todd Bowles will have to rely on his defense, as their best off-season addition was CB Jamel Dean and LB Lavonte David.
I just don’t think the Bucs defense will be enough to keep them in today’s offensive driven games. Bowles wind up on the hot seat, especially after they fired offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich last year. A poor offensive showing early could put pressure on the coaching staff resulting in more changes in 2024.
Raiders Under 6.5 Wins (-130):
Las Vegas will host the Super Bowl this season and that’s about the closest Raiders fans will get to seeing Super Bowl 58. The loss of Derek Carr could be more impactful than most think and that could result in Vegas being one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Jimmy Garoppolo takes over under center, but will he be healthy enough to stay on the field for a full 17 games? Garoppolo has only played 15+ games twice in his NFL career, and with Aidan O’Connell and Brian Hoyer as his backups, it doesn’t bode well if he sustains an injury.
Another factor that plays into the Raiders win total is their division. They’ll have to play the Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs, Justin Hebert and the Chargers and Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos all twice. All signs point to the Raiders being the bottom dwellers of the AFC West.
Fewest Wins:
Tampa Bay Bucs (+700) & Las Vegas Raiders (+1000):
While most bettors will bet Overs in win totals, the market of who will win the least amount of games this season seems to be a better value. Barring a significant injury to a star QB, the teams with the lowest odds are all teams with questions at QB.
The Arizona Cardinals are your favorite at (+220). Kyler Murray won’t be available to start this season coming off a torn ACL last season. He should return sometime during the season and his talent alone should be enough to win the Cards some game by season’s end.
The next two teams on the market are the Tampa Bay Bucs (+700) and Houston Texans (+850). Then it’s the Los Angeles Rams (+950) and Washington Commanders (+1000).
Both the Rams and Commanders have overall good coaches, who have been to an NFC Championship, so it’s unlikely you see either team give up on their head coach.
Then it brings us to the Las Vegas Raiders at (+1000) tied with the fifth lowest odds for fewest wins this year. Questions about QB health and Josh McDaniels’ track record are what I’m leaning on here. My honorable mention would be the Indianapolis Colts (+1400), who feature rookie QB Anthony Richardson and owner Jim Irsay, who has yet to pay his star RB Johnathan Taylor who’s looking for a new contract.
MVP
Josh Allen (+850):
This NFL off-season has been about three NFL QBs - Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow. All three have been in the news this summer, but it’s Bills QB Josh Allen who’s having the quiet off-season.
Reigning NFL MVP, Mahomes was featured in a Netflix docu-series that followed quarterbacks last season. Four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers is currently in a similar series, HBO’s Hard Knocks. And, Joe Burrow was headline news with a calf injury that has sideline him during training camp.
All that said, I think Josh Allen finally gets the votes and wins NFL MVP. The Bills offense has been one of the top-5 offenses in the NFL the past three seasons. Allen finished 3rd in MVP voting last season and 2nd in 2020 - both times losing out to either Mahomes or Rodgers. The MVP was won by a QB the past ten seasons, and if the Bills can lock up the #1 seed in the AFC, Allen should be the beneficiary of post-season awards.
Honorable Mention: Justin Hebert Most Passing Yards (+650):
Unlike last season, the leader in passing yards is usually not your MVP, but someone who keeps their team in games due to a poor defense. In past seasons, we’ve seen Tom Brady, DeShaun Watson and Jameis Winston lead the NFL in passing yards.
A prime example of why Justin Hebert will be this year’s leader; just look at the wild card loss against the Jaguars. The Chargers haven’t really improved defensively and they should be in some higher scoring games, when they play the Chiefs, Broncos and Bills this year.
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