LSU ranks among the nation's top six teams in both total offense and total defense through nine games. Yet the Tigers are 6-3, and their chances of reaching the College Football Playoff are hanging by a thread.
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The problem? LSU has been able to take care of business against lesser competition, but when the Tigers have faced Top 25 opponents, they haven't made enough plays in critical moments to win.
That was especially evident in Saturday's loss to Alabama.
LSU outgained the Crimson Tide 457-285, but the Tigers struggled to turn those yards into touchdowns. Head coach Lane Kiffin was asked after the game about his team's inability to make winning plays.
"I don't know," Kiffin said. "We had a chance."
Kiffin pointed to the offensive production of quarterback Sam Leavitt and receivers Jackson Harris and Trey'Dez Green, but said the numbers didn't tell the whole story.
"I was looking at a sheet and it said Sam (Leavitt) 380 yards passing and Jackson Harris had 11 receptions for 166 yards and Trey'Dez (Green) and 10 (receptions) for 85 (yards). I wouldn't think that would equal 13 points," Kiffin said. "But you got to score touchdowns in the red zone."
During his weekly Sunday Zoom conference with reporters, Kiffin offered an even more telling statistic about LSU's struggles inside the 25-yard line.
"If you take everything else and leave it the same and just take the red zone, we go there four times and get 13 points," Kiffin said. "They go there four times and get 28 points. So both our offense and defense played really poorly in the red zone. I credit them, too."
Kiffin gave Alabama credit for taking advantage of its bye week to change some of its tendencies and present LSU with different looks, particularly in the red zone.
"I don't think many people get us over years on things," Kiffin said of his offense. "They took the bye and did a lot of things in different ways that they had never done. And really they did things that we normally pick up on, and they had a really good plan for that. And they executed it very well. They were very aggressive. And when you do that, it's high risk, high reward."
LSU's red-zone struggles weren't limited to the final numbers. The Tigers ran 15 plays inside the 25-yard line, but targeted Green just twice. At 6-foot-7, the receiver would seemingly be a natural option in tight spaces near the goal line.
Harris, another one of Leavitt's most dependable targets, received just one target in the red zone.
The Tigers also struggled on fourth down, failing to convert any of their four attempts. It was the most fourth-down attempts without a conversion in Kiffin's coaching career.
The offensive line also had a difficult night against Alabama's defense, allowing 17 quarterback pressures. Three of LSU's lowest-graded offensive players, according to Pro Football Focus, were offensive linemen.
Starting center Braelin Moore had the lowest grade at 43.3. Pro Football Focus credited Moore with allowing four quarterback pressures, including a sack, as Leavitt faced consistent pressure up the middle.
Starting right guard Aliou Bah also surrendered two pressures and received the fourth-lowest grade. Sean Thompkins, who replaced an injured West Davis, had the third-lowest grade. Davis left the game on crutches.
The struggles up front are another concern for LSU, as the offensive line has had difficulty delivering its best performances in some of the program's biggest games dating back to the Brian Kelly era.
There is little time for the Tigers to dwell on the Alabama loss. LSU still has two major opportunities to strengthen its playoff resume, beginning with a home matchup against eighth-ranked Texas. That game will kick off at 6:30 p.m. in the Tigers' home finale.
LSU then travels to Knoxville to face ninth-ranked Tennessee.
Those two matchups are also the reason the Tigers haven't been completely eliminated from the playoff conversation. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, LSU still has a 25% chance of reaching the CFP.
But the path forward is clear. The Tigers can pile up yards against just about anybody. Against elite competition, they have to turn those yards into points.
If LSU continues to struggle in the red zone, it won't matter how impressive the offensive and defensive statistics look. The Tigers' season will end without a playoff appearance.
