The NASCAR Cup Series heads to a popular track this week, when drivers take on the “The Last Great Colosseum” that is Bristol Motor Speedway. There will also be the added element of over two thousand truckloads of red clay on the track as the Bristol Dirt Race will be the first dirt race in over 50 years.
The added dirt element throws everything out of the window when it comes to predictability. Drivers will get good insights into who’s good at handling the dirt on this track and who’s not Friday at practice and Saturday during qualifying races.
When it comes to who we should focus on during the Bristol Dirt Race, it’s safe to give the nod to drivers with dirt track experience. At the same time, those drivers with recent dirt track experience seem to be the ones under 30-years of age.
Drivers like Christopher Bell, Cole Custer and Chase Briscoe wouldn’t normally be favorites in a normal Bristol race, but it wasn’t long ago that these guys were dirt track racers coming up through the ranks. On the opposite end, drivers like Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr., who are all 37 years or older, probably haven’t stepped on a dirt track competitively in some time.
With all that in mind, here are some drivers to keep an eye on in the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol.
BUY:
Kyle Larson: (Odds 2.5/1)
Larson will be the most hyped driver Sunday and for good reason. Not only is he arguably the best dirt track driver in the NASCAR Cup Series, Kyle Larson also demonstrated that he has the best car in 2021.
Last season, Larson spent the majority of his time away from NASCAR piling up wins on dirt tracks across the country. That success should translate to Sunday’s Bristol Dirt Race, which is why his odds to win are extremely high compared to the rest of the field.
The reason to fade Larson on Sunday would be his adjustment to the Cup Series model car compared to an open-wheeled car normally seen in the Outlaw Series or other competitive leagues. I think most drivers have no idea how their cars will react to the track, until they practice Friday. That factor along with Larson’s high-end odds would be the only reason not to pick the #5 car.
Kyle Busch: (Odds: 16/1)
We’ll stick with another Kyle to do well Sunday and that’s the #18 driver Kyle Busch. KB has been putting in extra time for this race, even leaving immediately after last Sunday’s Atlanta race, to come straight to Bristol to check out the track.
Busch will also participate in the Truck Series race Friday night, which will give him an idea of what to expect throughout the weekend.
Busch’s record at Bristol is the best in the field. During the last seven races here on the concrete track, Busch has five top-4 finishes including three wins. If that success translates this weekend, expect to see our seventh different winner this season.
SELL:
Drivers over 35 years old:
As I mentioned before, the more tenured drivers in the Cup Series could struggle during the Bristol Dirt Race due to inexperience on the dirt. Excluding Kyle Busch in this group, it’s no surprise to see drivers like Denny Hamlin (30/1), Kevin Harvick (33/1) and Brad Keselowski (50/1) with such large odds to win.
Like Busch, all three of these drivers scored wins at Bristol in their careers. How much dirt track racing have they done since they drove dirt cars competitively? That’s a question most of us don’t know the answer to. We’ll get a clearer picture about the handling of each car Saturday night, when drivers qualify for Sunday’s starting grid.
LONG SHOT QUICK PICKS:
Tyler Reddick: (Odds: 20/1)
While there isn’t much data to guide you, Reddick’s driving style is similar to Kyle Larson’s. He’s also entering his second season in the Cup Series and finished fourth place in the race in September. The Chevrolets have been the manufacturer with cars to beat this season, so it wouldn’t shock me to see a good run from the #8 car.
William Byron: (Odds: 40/1)
If William Byron can get the win Sunday, he’ll be the first driver this season with multiple wins in 2021. He’s coming off a virtual win in the iRacing event NASCAR held Wednesday night. While that has little impact on his driving come Sunday, its good momentum as he enters the Bristol Dirt Race.
