Tyler Shough had his breakout game in a win over the Panthers. Can he put his stamp on a rivalry with another strong performance against a wounded Falcons squad?
There's certainly going to be pressure. The rookie's strong performance in Week 10 meant good vibes entering the bye week, but that means a long wait and high expectations coming out of it.
THE GAME | Falcons (3-7) at Saints (2-8)
- When: 3:25 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 23
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, La.
- Series history: tied 56-56
- Last meeting: 2024, Saints 20, Falcons 17
- Betting: Saints -2; over/under 40
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Jeff Nowak & Steve Geller, 11 a.m. to 1 p.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Bobby Hebert & Steve Geller, 1 to 3 p.m.
The Saints need to keep stacking wins, particularly if they come with strong QB play, to prove the needle is indeed pointed in the right direction. If they can twist the knife of a hurting rival in the process, all the better.
With all that in mind, here are the three biggest things I'm watching (and a bit of lagniappe) heading into the Week 12 showdown.
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1. Can the rivalry juice return?
As I went around the locker room this week considering who to ask about the Falcons rivalry, it dawned pretty quickly that there weren't many options -- at least not ones that understood the true depth of it.
"You can feel the energy from the guys who have been here," Kelvin Banks told me, "about how much this means to, obviously to us, and then obviously to the city of New Orleans. I’m learning a lot more about it now."
These teams don't like each other, or at least they shouldn't. There's been some taste of that for players like Chris Olave and Alontae Taylor over the past several seasons, but they arrived well after the true pettiness had subsided. I'm talking about the likes of 2018 when the Saints were celebrating Shy Tuttle stiff arms with turkey legs or openly mocking Atlanta with buses blocking their team intros. It got so bad at one point that Arthur Blank complained to the NFL.
It's just hard to get to that level of vitriol for another team when you're missing the playoffs for four straight years and the other side hasn't won more than 8 games in nearly a decade. At the core of any rivalry is trash-talking, not only from the players on the field, but also the fanbase. There simply hasn't been much ammunition for that over the past few years.
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I was hopeful this game could be the start of something, because one of the fastest ways to build juice in a rivalry is in the QB comparison. This was supposed to be the first chance for Tyler Shough to face off with Michael Penix, potentially the face of both teams for the foreseeable future.
Penix's knee injury has made sure that won't happen, but can Shough at least give Saints fans a reason to push out their chest for a week and maybe even see some well-earned trolling on social media? Shough does seem to understand the gravity of the scenario, a fact aided by one of the few remaining members of this roster that truly gets it.
"Cam, he’s probably said enough, he freaking hates them and I’m excited just getting on it," the Saints QB said. "I mean, I’m obviously new to the rivalry but I can feel it. It feels a little bit different, for sure. It feels that way and I think that’s a good thing."
The next step will be doing something that allows the young QB to get in on that rivalry talk himself. There's not a lot left to celebrate this year, but getting that ball rolling in Week 12 would be nice to see.
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2. Can you limit Bijan Robinson?
Here's a pretty straightforward statistic:
- Falcons record when Bijan has >150 total yards: 3-0
- Falcons record when Bijan has <150 total yards: 0-7
Atlanta doesn't have star WR Drake London. The offense is headlined by Bijan and Kyle Pitts, the latter a player that the Saints have traditionally handled well, though this is the first time they've faced him with a non-Dennis Allen defensive scheme.
WR Darnell Mooney can be a dynamic player and he produced well with Kirk Cousins last year, but the defensive focus for the Saints has to be the dynamic running back. There's no taking a way a player like that, but you do need to bottle him up. I often compare Bijan to Saquon Barkley and the matchup with the Eagles last year is a good comparison point. In that game the Saints largely bottled him up well with 82 yards on 20 of his 21 carries ... the problem was that other carry went for a 65-yard touchdown that turned the tide in a tight game. A 4.3 yards per carry day was turned into 8.6 on one snap.
Bijan is similar in that respect. He's as true a home run hitter at RB as exists in today's NFL. All the good work can be undone with one or two missed run fits and big plays for a Falcons offense that will probably struggle to put up points. The Saints need to play fundamentally sound football, stay in their gaps and gang tackle. They'll also need plays in the open-field to prevent 10-yard runs from turning into 50-yard runs.
If the Saints can keep Bijan's impact somewhere in the range of 90-110 total yards, I feel good about their chances. If he's pushing that 150-yard range, things get dicey. The good news is he's the only player I have to say this type of thing about.
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3. Can you handle the blitz?
The Falcons are one of only two teams in the NFL that have sent five or more rushers on more than 40% of their defensive snaps. They're second in the NFL in sacks, and that's a big part of the reason why.
Saints head coach Kellen Moore pointed specifically to Kaden Elliss in this regard as a player who adds challenging wrinkles to the pass rush. Atlanta is often making adjustments late in a QB's cadence and stressing the protection plan in a variety of ways.
The Falcons' pressure can come from anywhere and that's reflected in the stats. It's rare to see a team rank in the top 3 in sacks without a player ranking toward the top of the league in that statistic. The Falcons don't have a single player with more than 4.5 sacks, but they have 11 players with 1.5 or more. Compare that to the Saints with six.
That varied rush will put pressure on the Saints OL in a lot of ways, but particularly when it comes to communication.
"You’ve got to be able to be coordinated and communicate and make sure everyone understands the responsibilities and they’re going to stress your protection plan on third downs," head coach Kellen Moore said. "They’re going to do a lot of things to stress it, put a time clock on you, five and six man type pressures and so it’ll be a fun challenge.”
One big question will be the status of Taliese Fuaga, who is listed as questionable as he works back from a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 9. If he can't go, expect another start for Asim Richards in relief.
We saw Shough find success last week against a Panthers team down toward the bottom of the league in pressure stats. This week will be a different test. How he handles that in the pass game will go a long way toward deciding who wins this game.
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LAGNIAPPE
If Saints fans didn't know any better, they'd probably think Tyler Allgeier was a perennial All-Pro. In five games against the Saints he's rolled up 346 yards and TD on 52 carries (6.7 yards per attempt). He runs like a bowling ball and has 7 TDs on the season already. Hopefully Brandon Staley's defense can limit him better than Dennis Allen's in the past. ... Brandin Cooks is still on the roster due to contract revision issues with the league, but he won't be playing. It remains to be seen exactly how that situation pans out, but the Saints signed WR Kevin Austin Jr. to the active roster. If he's active, it'll be the first time he's played since Week 3 as a call-up against the Seahawks. I expect the Saints to lean into the bigger personnel the rest of the way, which should be a help in the run game. ... Blake Grupe has made 7 of his last 8 kicks and appears to have righted the ship, though he's only attempted one kick of 40-plus yards over the past three weeks. ... The Falcons have ranked 31st in play action rate (16%) to this stage of the season. Not a thing you'd typically say about an offense that sprung from the Sean McVay tree, and definitely not about a team that relies so heavily on the run game as the Falcons. It'll be interesting to see if that changes with Kirk Cousins at QB. ... If the Saints win this game (or any the rest of the way), Tyler Shough would join Archie Manning as the only two Saints rookie QBs to win multiple games.