The New Orleans Saints hit the road again still in search of their first win of Kellen Moore era, but they'll have a tall task ahead against the unbeaten Buffalo Bills.
The Saints arrive in upstate New York as two-touchdown underdogs.
THE GAME | Saints (0-3) at Bills (3-0)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Sept. 28
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
- Series history: Saints lead 7-5
- Last meeting: 2021, Bills 31, Saints 6
- Betting: Bills -15.5; over/under 48.5
- TV: CBS
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Steve Geller & Charlie Long, 8-10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10 a.m. to noon
With all that in mind here's what I'm watching most closely, and a bit of lagniappe, in the showdown up in the Orchard Park.
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CAN YOU RUN THE BALL?
There’s a narrow road the Saints have to tread to have a chance to win this game, and that road includes controlling the clock and leaning heavily on the run game. The statistics would tell you that’s more than possible. As good as the Bills are, they’ve been one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL through the first three games.
Don’t believe me? Here are some key metrics:
- Rushing yards allowed per game: 156 (32 of 32)
- Yards per carry allowed: 6.2 (32 of 32)
- Average rushing yards allowed before contact: 1.99 (31 of 32)
- Average rushing yards allowed after contact: 4.25 (31 of 32)
- Rushes of 10-plus yards allowed: 18 (32 of 32)
- Rush TDs allowed: 4 (T25 of 32)
Sure, it’s early in the season and you shouldn’t put TOO MUCH stock in those type of metrics, but being at the bottom of the league in that many categories doesn't happen by accident. The run defense is a weakness of this team, and they’ll be without one of their star interior defensive players with Ed Oliver ruled out.
“Obviously you’d love to run the football, I think that’s a really big component of this thing,” head coach Kellen Moore said about establishing the run, "but we’ve got to get first downs, we've got to be efficient on first and second down, we’ve got to … control the time of possession and play that game.”
Agreed. The Saints run the ball at an effective clip this season, but a lot of that has been done after contact. I’m hopeful with the return of Trevor Penning and a healthy (or at least healthier) Taliese Fuaga, the blocking can improve. It’s the first time all season the Saints will have all five of their intended OL starters on the field together.
If the Saints want to walk out of Buffalo with what would be a massive upset, or at the very least be talking about how they kept things competitive, the OL and run game being a strength will be paramount. This is the way.
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KEEP THINGS IN FRONT
The Saints have been tough to evaluate on defense this year, particularly in last week’s beatdown against the Seahawks. No, they didn’t excel in more than a few ways, but they weren’t exactly put in positions to succeed.
One thing Brandon Staley pointed to this week was how effective his group has been at eliminating explosive plays. He points to that as a marker of success, moreso than the 70.8% completion percentage against figure that ranks 27th in the NFL through three games.
“Explosions are how you lose in the NFL and our guys have been outstanding with that,” he said, "and we’ve also tackled the catch well.”
He’s the expert, but the numbers don’t exactly sell that point. It comes down to how you’d classify an explosive play. If it’s pass plays of 40-plus yards allowed, the Saints are tied for 28th in the NFL with three. But if you drop that down to 20-plus yards, the Saints have allowed just 8, which is tied for 12th-best in the NFL.
I wouldn’t classify 12th as outstanding, but it’s certainly better than I’d have guessed. The Saints have allowed just one run of 20-plus yards, though it was a 52-yard sprint by Trey Benson in Week 1.
Regardless, I do think that he’s onto something in that they’ll have to limit the chunk plays by the Bills to stay in touch in this game. When you’re facing an elite QB, the focus has to be limiting possessions. You can do that in a number of ways, one of which is controlling the ball with your own offense, the other is by forcing the opposing offense to go the long way and run a high number of plays. It’d obviously help if you could force a turnover or two, but don’t hold your breath against this Bills squad. They’re one of three teams to not have a turnover this season on offense, and they’ve won the turnover battle in an astounding 25 consecutive games.
In the end, this combination of stats concerns me:
- Saints pressure percentage generated: 21.6% (lowest in NFL)
- Bills pressure percentage allowed: 20.7% (lowest in NFL)
The Bills could be starting a backup RT and maybe that creates some opportunities, but I still don’t like how that stacks up.
One other thing: Cut out the silly penalties, please. The Saints have had an instance in all three games where it looked like they were going to be getting off the field on third down, only for yellow laundry to extend a series. The Bills are familiar with that type of help, as they’re currently leading the NFL in points from drives that were extended by penalty.
“You can't give high-powered attacks second chances,” Staley said.
We can definitely agree on that point.
Related
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SPECIAL TEAMS? I’LL SETTLE FOR ADEQUATE TEAMS
When Darren Rizzi left town, coupled with the departure of J.T. Gray this offseason, I expected some dropoff in special teams execution. I definitely didn’t expect to see the type of special teams disaster that detonated any chance the Saints had in Week 3.
That group was directly responsible for 7 points due to a 95-yard punt return, and I’d argue they’re directly on the hook for another 14 with a blocked punt deep in Saints territory and a 60-yard kickoff return. The good news, at least relatively, is that those two punt game instances were simple mistakes. The Saints have preached communication and leverage this week, and they’ve devoted extra practice time to getting it right.
On the punt return it was a 61-yard punt with inadequate hangtime and lack of leverage to funnel the play to the teeth of the coverage. On the punt block it was a miscommunication in the protection that allowed a free rusher off the left side. Neither things can happen, but both are easily fixable.
There’s also the issue of a field goal miss in three consecutive games, the most recent from 52 after short misses in Weeks 1 and 2.
Phil Galiano used the word “embarrasing” when describing the Week 3 performance of his units, and that’s not a word that gets thrown around lightly in NFL press conferences. It’s the type of blunt honesty that had better be getting used in those discussions, because a team playing with as thin of margins as the Saints are can’t afford to be getting a negative impact from teams. It probably needs that group to be adding value, but I’ll settle for a wash.
This week is hugely important for Kellen Moore to show his team can bounce back from a rough week and prove the standard is higher than it looked during a beatdown in Seattle. It’s also important for Phil to show he can hack it as a coordinator and that the team shouldn’t be looking for a replacement. These are the moments when you learn the most about the players AND the coaching. Let’s see how it goes.
LAGNIAPPE
Carl Granderson and Josh Allen were teammates back at Wyoming. Hopefully Carl gets close enough to say hello a few times in this game. … Following up on the note above, I’d really like to see a three-man RB rotation in this game. Get Devin Neal involved. I’d like to see at least 30 rushing attempts, if not more. Alvin Kamara 18, Kendre Miller 8, Neal 4. … I’d love to see a game where Juwan Johnson caught all the balls thrown to him that weren’t knocked out by defenders. We’ve had back-to-back games where balls bounced off his hands more than I’d like to see. With his usage, it feels like only a matter of time before he has a massive statistical game. … Spencer Rattler is 0-9 and it’d take a massive upset to avoid 0-10. He’s rapidly approaching some territory you don’t want to be in. Troy Aikman is No. 2 on the all-time list of consecutive games started without a win (0-11), though he obviously found better days before too long. The ultimate record of QB futilty is owned by Deshone Kizer, who went 0-15 and ended his career that way. It feels unlikely that Rattler would still be the starter if he went five more games wihout a win, but you really would rather not be on that list at all. Still, Kellen Moore said he's not looking at anything from Rattler other than this year's performances, since those are the ones under his coaching regime, and he's firmly behind the young QB despite the 0-3 start.