The New Orleans Saints are set for an emotional reunion with their former head coach, and the offensive roster down its starting QB, three starting linemen and the top two WRs. What could go wrong?
We don't have to wait long to find out, with the Saints and Broncos matching up on Thursday Night Football at the Caesars Superdome. That means a lot of players will get to show in front of a national audience that they've got what it takes -- or they won't. We'll get the answer either way, and one of these two teams will make a statement. Which one will it be?
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm looking for most closely in the reunion game.
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1. Cut out the mistakes
Pick a side of the ball, there's plenty of criticism to go around.
The most notable issue to criticize this week has been the tackling, and that's just going to be the case when a team misses 15 tackles and allows 51 points and nearly 600 yards of offense. Before last week Sean Tucker was more likely to be confused with the guy from Friday than a potential NFC Offensive Player of the Week, but then the Saints defense got involved.
The good news is I think the Saints' problems are mostly a product of a poor approach and execution. The bad news is that stuff doesn't appear by accident. I don't know how you fix those things in three days, but we know these players are tackling with proper technique and pursuit angles, hopefully things look a lot cleaner against an offense that doesn't contain nearly as many threats within it as the Saints have faced the last few weeks.
The other side of the ball has been equally frustrating, but we've been giving it a pass because of the other issues. Still, the Saints have now had three consecutive weeks with an illegal procedure penalty during a key drive. Against the Falcons it was Rashid Shaheed on what turned into a go-ahead touchdown drive in the final minutes. Against the Chiefs it was a 3rd and 7 midway through the third quarter that saw a nice gain to Mason Tipton wiped out by a Chris Olave illegal shift. The Saints failed on 3rd and long and were forced to punt. Against the Chiefs it was a 3rd and 8 late in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed flagged for an illegal shift as he didn't get set before the ball was snapped. That wiped out a nice gain, again, to Juwan Johnson over the middle of the field. The Saints failed on 3rd and long and were forced to punt.
"I think it's a lot of things, at the end of the day. The quarterback has to make sure that before we start a motion that everybody is set," Kubiak said, while noting the issue landed on coaching more than anything else. "I think that's part of Spence being a young guy, but it's also part of the wideout position. It's the whole operation, you can't burn a timeout and you can't lose a key third down because of it, so, not OK."
In both cases the game was well within reach, the Saints simply needed to execute and sustain a drive. The offense made the play, it was undone by silly penalties that didn't really affect the play. Attention to detail, success, rinse, repeat.
Neither of the WRs that were flagged in those situations will be available on Thursday. It'll be on young players to execute.
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2. The Bub Means game?
As mentioned above, the Saints will be without their top two wide receivers for Thursday night, and in the case of Shaheed for the foreseeable future as he works through a significant knee injury. Olave is still in the concussion protocol.
Conventional wisdom would qualify those facts as major issues, coach speak wisdom would use the term "opportunity," which is how Dennis Allen phrased it this week.
“Any time you have guys that go down it’s an opportunity or somebody else," the head coach said. "So we have guys that will have an opportunity to step up and play and we’re counting on them to step up and play well.”
So who could take advantage of that opportunity? My money is on the other 5th round pick the Saints landed after taking Spencer Rattler in this year's NFL draft. The skillset has always been impressive. Means is already built for the NFL from a physical perspective, and he's got impressive body control, hands and sneaky athleticism despite not having elite downfield speed. If that sounds familiar, it's the same combination that helped Mike Thomas explode in Sean Payton's offense early in his career.
The other thing Mike had a lot of? Opportunity and a quarterback who trusted him with the ball. Mike took advantage of it. Can Bub?
Personally, I think he can. I picked him up in every fantasy league I could get my hands on him, because I think he's going to be peppered with targets as long as Rattler is starting at QB. The reason for that is two-fold. One, he and Spencer have worked together as much as any QB-WR tandem on this roster. When the QB trusts the receiver to make him right, the chances will come early and often. The second part is more subtle, and it's that Means understands the nuances of a QB that can extend a play.
The Saints defense would be the first to tell you how difficult that can be to manage. Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce have turned it into a Hall of Fame artform. We got a good glimpse of that on a third down in this last game. Spencer broke the pocket and rolled to his right, where Means was engaged in coverage. The WR identified that his QB needed an outlet, broke off his route, navigated to space where there was a throwing lane, the QB found him. First down, drive extended. It's the type of play that can be the difference between a long drive to wear down the opposing defense and give you own a rest, and a punt that keeps puts a tired defense right back into the fire.
Means isn't the only guy who will get chances. Mason Tipton will get his biggest role yet, and Cedrick Wilson Jr. will be the veteran of the group -- though his drop last week doesn't help his case for more targets. I also expect the ball to be pushed to the tight ends more frequently, and I think Rattler had a similar rapport with Foster Moreau on some improve plays. It'll take more than one receiver to get the job done in this game.
Still, I'm expecting Means to be the breakout player that everyone is talking about Friday morning. My guess: 8 catches, 105 yards, TD.
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3. Watch out for tricky Sean
We can go ahead and thank Darren Rizzi now: There will be no ambush-style onside kicks, that play is officially dead with the new kickoff rule that the Saints special teams coordinator championed. If Sean wants to go for an onside kick in this game, he'll have to warn his opponent first.
It's a short week, so I don't think you really have much bandwidth to install anything too crazy. The Broncos will run their stuff, the Saints will run their stuff, whichever team does it better will win. Still, I have a hard time believing that Sean will sit back and let things play out without a few gambles.
I expect the Broncos to try to steal at least one possession. Whether it's on a fake field goal or a fake punt or some kind of trick play that's been drilled the back of their offense's brain waiting for the best opportunity to break it out, if there's an opportunity for that, I'm on alert for it.
No one knows this better than the Saints, and Rizzi points to Payton's understanding of the value of special teams as a key reason why those units have been so effective in New Orleans over the years. You can coach it however you want, but at the end of the day the head coach gets the call on how you operate.
Nothing is more demoralizing for a defense than having to run back out onto the field after you believe you've earned your way off of it with a third down stop. When it comes to kicks and punts, keep your head on a swivel.
LAGNIAPPE
Typically I'll reserve this column for Saints players, but in this case the former ex-Saints might be more notable, particularly the tight ends. Other than Wil Lutz, who has a fair gripe for effectively being forced out on the back end of a kicker battle, perhaps no one has a better revenge game narrative than the Broncos' TEs in Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull. Neither really got the opportunity they probably think they deserved after Dennis Allen took over, and both will likely be wanting to prove that was a mistake. It's worth noting that neither has done much with the Broncos either, with the pair combining for 5 catches and 48 yards through six games. That's why a big game for either would be notable. If one or both comes out with fire in their eyes and goes off for a reasonably big game, it'll most definitely qualify as a revenge arc. ... Who returns punts? Without Rashid Shaheed, that becomes a serious question. I'm not all that concerned about kickoffs. You'll lose explosiveness, but at the end of the day you have bodies to fill that role. I'm not so sure about the punt game, and it's a scenario where you need someone you trust to make good decisions in the moment. A bad decision to not field a kick can cost you a lot of yards. A bad decision to field a kick that ends with the ball on the ground can, well, we know how that could end. Right now the best options on the active roster would feel like Mason Tipton or Cedrick Wilson, though the veteran did struggle a bit in his preseason opportunities. I wouldn't bet against the Saints activating Jermaine Jackson and having him busy in that role. The Saints brought him back for a reason, and I think this is probably that reason. ... One key in this game will be how Spencer Rattler handles the blitz. The Vikings this year have blitzed at the highest percentage in the NFL (41.8%), and the rookie QB didn't handle extra pressure particularly well last week. According to Pro Football Focus, Rattler was blitzed on 22 dropbacks. On those snaps he went 6-18 (33%), for 39 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and 3 sacks. It's not unusual for a young QB to get taken apart by pressure, but how he handles that this time around could go a long way toward determining the result. Like he told this week, you have to be smart about the chances you take, "but you can't play scared, so we're not playing scared." ... Kendre Miller, is that you? I sure hope so. The Saints need some juice in the run game and count me among the clueless who still thinks he can bring it.
