The New Orleans Saints have good vibes right now, but will that be enough to get to 2-0 in the Rizzi ball era?
Former Saints QB Jameis Winston and the Browns have other plans, though the Browns' plans have a way of not turning out that well for them. Both teams have had that in common this season, to say the least.
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching most closely as the Saints (3-7) host the Browns (2-7) with an eye on keeping the good times rolling into the bye week.
THE GAME | Browns (2-7) at Saints (3-7)
- When: Noon, Sunday Nov. 17
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Series history: Browns lead 13-6
- Last meeting: Week 16, 2022: Saints 17, Browns 10
- Last week: Saints beat Falcons 20-17; Browns on bye
- Betting: Saints +1; o/u 44.5
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Jeff Nowak & Steve Geller (8-10 a.m); Countdown to Kickoff with Bobby Hebert & Steve Geller, 10 a.m.-noon
1. Movable force, meet stoppable object
There's no denying the obvious: The 2024 New Orleans Saints just can't seem to stop the run.
Things have changed, faces have changed, defensive line deployment has changed, but nothing has seemed to work. Most recently it was Bijan Robinson going off for 116 yards a pair of touchdowns, though the Saints did manage to withstand that for a win.
All told the Saints head into Week 11 ranked No. 27 in the NFL against the run to the tune of 141 yards allowed per game. They do seem to be making strides in the right direction, at least, with reasonably stout performances against the Chargers and Panthers, both teams that are dedicated to their ground game. If the Saints want to have the type of magical run to the finish that probably isn't worth really discussing right now, that's where they'll have to be better.
One thing that the Saints can and must eliminate is the explosive runs. Bijan's day doesn't look nearly as dominant without that 37-yard TD run in the third quarter. The same could be said of Saquon Barkley and his 65-yard TD run in Week 3. The same could be said for Sean Tucker (36 yards and Bucky Irving 31 yards) against the Bucs in Week 6. Need I go on?
Enter the Browns, a team that by all account should be able to run the ball, but hasn't in the slightest. Heading into Week 11 they sit at No. 28 in the NFL with just 91 yards per game on the ground. Oh, but they've got Nick Chubb back, certainly that will boost things? Not so far. In the three games since his return from a devastating knee injury, Chubb has managed just 113 yards on his 42 carries, good for a 2.7 YPC mark. The Browns' rushing average has actually dipped to 78.7 yards per game in that span, a mark that sits No. 30 in the league.
It's certainly fair to expect Chubb to round into form at some point, and for the Saints to have the best chance in this game they need to make sure that doesn't happen this week. The good news for the Saints is their defensive coaching staff is VERY familiar with what Chubb can do. Joe Woods was the Browns defensive coordinator from 2020-'22 and watched Chubb go against his defense often. He'll have some pointers to share, but the Saints have to do it.
One interesting element to watch will be whether Pete Werner plays, and if he does how effective can he be with his injured hand wrapped in a club. He's been a major difference-maker in the Saints run defense when he's been healthy.
If the Saints defense can get the job done on the ground, they can lean into my next point even more.
2. Ruin Jameis' day
Jameis Winston's return to the Caesars Superdome is certainly going to be a fun storyline, and I'm sure he'll have a good time with it. But I want to see the Saints sending him home with material for his nightmares.
Again, this is a defense that knows exactly what to expect from the Browns QB.
"Quite honesty, man, we’ve just got to catch the ones that he throws to us," said safety Tyrann Mathieu this week.
It was somewhat in jest, but only somewhat. The book on Jameis exists the way it does for a reason. He's going to be aggressive. He's going to take his shots. He's going to put the ball in harm's way. It's a style that makes for breathtaking excitement when it goes well, and one that makes you pull your hair out when it doesn't.
Winston's first two games with the Chargers are a perfect example. In the stunning win over the Ravens three weeks ago, it was a line of 27-41 for 334 yards, 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions that spurred the victory. But if you watched the game, the Ravens had two gift-wrapped INTs they dropped that could've potentially changed the result.
Jameis wasn't as fortunate a week later against the Chargers, throwing three interceptions in a 27-10 loss.
I think it really is that simple. If the Saints can bottle up the run and force Jameis to throw, then take advantage of mistakes, I think they win the game. It'd also be nice for Alontae Taylor to start making those plays, because he simply hasn't been taking advantage of opportunities despite playing perfect coverage a high percentage of the time.
Let the show begin.
Will the real WRs please stand up?
I don't think Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be catching anybody by surprise this week. The Falcons clearly weren't ready. They challenged Derek Carr and the Saints offense to prove they could go over the top, and that's what they did. I don't anticipate those shot plays will be as easy to find this week.
So who steps up in the WR room? Maybe it's MVS again. He's certainly the most seasoned and electric player in that room. The Browns have one whole interception on the year, so I'm more than comfortable challenging them. But I genuinely don't know who else in the WR room I can reliably look to in he passing game.
If it was up to me I'd be looking to Kevin Austin Jr. No disrespect to Mason Tipton, but he's gotten plenty of opportunities and simply hasn't taken advantage of them. If he's not my deep option, I don't see the value he brings as a smaller receiver in an offensive that needs blocking on the edges to be successful.
With two targets in his NFL debut, Austin twice did what I've yet to see Tipton do once: Convert in a critical situation. Instead it's seemed all year like those guys have been on different pages. Austin also had some really nice effort reps as a blocker, and he's got an elite size/speed combo that this team desperately needs on the edges.
Regardless, whether it's Austin or Tipton or MVS or Cedrick Wilson or ... Dante Pettis? I need someone to step up, and I need them to do it quickly, because I'm terrified of what Myles Garrett might do to this game if Derek Carr can't get the ball out of his hands quickly.
LAGNIAPPE
Can Erik McCoy's return make a significant difference? I feel like it will, and if the Saints can get the run game going similarly to how they did in Weeks 1 & 2, I feel like this offense can start humming again -- at least to an extent. Being without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed has lowered the ceiling dramatically in that regard, but I still think there's a much more efficient group in there. ... This is the time last year that Juwan Johnson really started asserting himself in the offense, and we're seeing glimpses of that. I thought he had a sneaky good game against the Panthers and his athleticism is always something I don't think the Saints have taken advantage of enough. Let's see more of it. ... Can the sack party continue? Last week we saw the Saints turn to more of a legitimate rotation at defensive end and the result was a fresher unit at the end of the game with key sacks from Cam Jordan and Chase Young that helped seal the result. Payton Turner also notched his second sack of the season, and I think he's another guy who has had a sneaky-good year that not a lot of folks are talking about. I expect that to continue this week against a QB that's not going to be running out of trouble very often. ,,, Call me a homer, this just feels like the type of game the Saints win, regardless of the coach.
