The New Orleans Saints are nearly halfway through their season and the first NFC South game is on deck. It's a quirk of this season, but it means a lot of these games the rest of the way.
There's familiarity, there's bulletin board material. It just means a bit more.
THE GAME | Bucs (5-2) at Saints (1-6)
- When: 3:05 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Series history: Saints lead 40-27
- Last meeting: 2024, Week 18, Bucs 27, Saints 19
- Betting: Saints +4.5; over/under 46.5
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
With all that in mind, here are the three biggest things (and a bit of lagniappe) I'm watching for in Week 8.
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Remember the run defense?
The New Orleans Saints have had a tale of two seasons from a run-stuffing perspective. In three games (49ers, Seahawks, Patriots) they've held their opponents to an average of 82 yards per game and 2.47 yards per carry.
The other four (Cardinals, Bills, Giants and Bears), those figures skyrocket to 167.5 yards and 5 yards per carry. The most egregious effort came against the Bears, with 222 yards allowed. According to the NFL's Next Gen Stats, the Saints allowed 2.04 yards before contact, on average. That was up more than half a yard from the team's season average of 1.35.
“It was a poor performance from us in that phase, certainly, and that’s where we fell short in the game," Staley said this week.
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Where the Saints got hurt the most was in their sub packages. When the Bears ran the ball against the Saints in nickel (five DBs) or dime (six DBs) looks, they averaged 6.6 yards per carry (118 yards on 18 attempts). In several instances they double-team blocked both interior linemen, and the edge rushers -- aligned in wide techniques -- were unable to close the space and make plays at or near the line of scrimmage. That's an area that Staley said his team needed to improve.
“Our edges needed to close faster, for sure," Staley continued. "We didn’t close well enough on the backside. ... It wasn’t a tackling issue, you know, it was just the execution of our technique and the scheme.”
The numbers would suggest that the Saints should be able to get back on the right track this week. The Bucs average 99.6 rush yards per game (23rd in the NFL) and will be without multiple starting linemen and RB Bucky Irving. In Week 7 against the Lions, Tampa only managed 41 yards on the ground.
The Saints need more consistent run-stuffing. Hopefully that starts this week.
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Bounceback Ratt
Week 7 served an important purpose for me in terms of watching the Saints young quarterback play, because it was much more reminiscent of a game from 2024 than the prior six starts in 2025.
I don't point that out as a negative, moreso just to highlight how far he's come and what he's been doing so well to this point, even mired in a 1-6 start. Spencer Rattler has solidified the starting job to this stage by being an elite decision-maker. He protected the football and balanced aggression with game managing. The Saints lost five of their first six games, but they had the ball with an opportunity to take a lead in the 4th quarter in four of them.
Protecting the ball will do that for you more often than not. It gives you a chance to win the game. Rattler didn't protect the ball in Week 7 against the Bears, and it started on the first possession of the game with poor ball security and a fumble. There were big plays, but also big turnovers. Rattler admitted this week that he got a bit too "amped up" in this game, and it's a lesson learned.
"We kind of started to feel it a little bit, including myself after those two touchdowns we had to end the half and coming out, and you’ve just got to stay neutral," Rattler said. "Don’t get too high, don’t get too low and I think I got a little too high that game and didn’t come back to neutral.”
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One of the plays noted was the interception targeting Rashid Shaheed downfield on a scramble drill. The Saints were down 9 and had some momentum. In that situation it was 1st and 10 and a high-risk throw. Those are the type of moments where a 3-yard scramble would've been just fine.
The good news for Rattler is the team is staying behind him, and this week will be an important opportunity for him to bounce back against a defense he knows well. Rattler is set to make his 14th career start, and his third against the Bucs. It's the only team he's played more than once, and one that he had a strong performance against -- at least in the first half -- in Week 18 of last season. The Saints led that game by 10 at halftime (we can forget the rest).
Rattler and the Saints can't "lose its stinger," as Kellen Moore put it, in response to a difficult game. If QB1 can have his bounceback, fantastic. If he doesn't, there might be more conversation about who QB1 is.
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A "clean game"
Baker Mayfield wasn't here for the bulk of the ugliness in the Mike Evans-Marshon Lattimore blood feud, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt in this conversation.
Still, he had this to say this week: "It has not exactly been clean play from their part when we play them. It is a physical game; it is what it is. You expect it. ... Yeah, not much else to say besides for the fact that I do not like them."
Translation: The Saints defense hit him hard and he took exception to it. It is football, after all.
Saints coaches and players were made well aware of those comments this week, but none chose to lean into it -- at least not publicly.
"I don’t make much of it at all," Staley said, "and, you know, it’s gonna be a good matchup for us on Sunday and these division games are like that and you know, that’s what is awesome about the NFL is that you get to figure it out between the white lines.”
Saints linebacker Demario Davis said the same. The veteran linebacker is all about the trash talk, but he always makes sure he keeps it on the field. One of his favorite things to do is, after he lays a particularly big hit on somebody, he'll say "oh, dang, I missed you."
Just to get in their heads a little bit. Well, if the Saints are letting Baker's jabs get into their heads, they're not telling us. Personally, I think it'd be wrong not to. This team is 1-6. Use everything. And if you can't take some ill-advised trash talk and use it as motivation, that's disappointing.
All this is to say, last week the Saints faced a Bears defense that looked like it had the emotional edge against their defensive coordinator's former team. I'd really like the Saints to look like that team in this game.
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LAGNIAPPE
The Saints decided to keep things simple and went with veteran Luke Fortner to replace injured Erik McCoy. "He's just a pro," Doug Nussmeier said. It's a bit of a cliche, but it's also the exact reason he was brought in late in the preseason after the injury to Will Clapp. Fortner has started 34 games in his career and he won't be overwhelmed. We'll have to wait and see just how much that switch affects this offense. ... The Saints will only have two active running backs for this game, which means rookie Devin Neal will be getting all the non-Alvin Kamara reps (with the potential exception of Taysom Hill plays). One of the reasons the Saints feel confident in that decision is Neal's ability in pass protection. The team considered him the best pass protector in the draft and they have a lot of confidence in what he'll be able to do taking over for Kendre Miller. ... Chris Olave has had 98 yards in back-to-back games and is coming off his first career two-touchdown game. Could this be the start of true breakout stretch? ... Keep an eye on Danny Stutsman's reps. The Saints have gotten him two series in place of Pete Werner in each of the past two weeks. Does that number start to tick up? The trade deadline is approaching and Werner would seem to be a potential option to be moved.