The New Orleans Saints have an opportunity to keep their season alive for another week, if nothing else. Will they take advantage?
On its face this is a matchup of two teams hovering around .500 and still with a chance to win the NFC South. But it's the Bucs in control at 8-7, with a win clinching their third consecutive division crown. The Saints had their fate in their hands prior to a loss to the Rams, but now they need a win and a Panthers win over Tampa in Week 18.
It's unlikely, but all the Saints can do is get to Week 18 with a chance. So how can they get there? Here are the top three things I'm watching for (and a bit of lagniappe) in the Week 17 showdown at Raymond James Stadium.
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1. WHO CHECKS MIKE EVANS?
In previous matchups this wasn’t even a question that had to be asked. The Marshon Lattimore vs Mike Evans show was appointment viewing, and more often than not that had worked out in the Saints’ favor. Well, Marshon is on IR … so what now?
Joe Woods tells me the Saints will have to “do it by committee.” They’ll change up their looks and do a few different things, but it doesn’t sound like that’ll include anyone shadowing. Paulson Adebo and Isaac Yiadom will likely play sides, and it’ll be on both to hold up when targeted.
Adebo didn't play in the Week 4 matchup, but he was in a similar situation last year and held up well ... until he didn't. Evans logged just 4 catches for 59 yards in the game, but that doesn't factor in the 44-yard pass interference penalty that set up a touchdown in the Bucs' comeback. He also had a holding penalty earlier in the game to extend a drive. Can't have that again.
The frustrating secondary performance in the loss to the Rams makes this week’s matchup feel even tougher, but there’s a pretty good track record for those guys that I’m willing to write that day off to a short week against a very difficult passing offense and quarterback. If it happens again after 10 days off, that’s officially a problem.
The additional question is how Alontae Taylor bounces back after being benched. I expect him to do exactly that, based on how he’s approached this week.
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2. WHO WINS THE TRENCHES?
One of the biggest frustrations of this season has been how frequently the Saints seem to have gotten slapped around on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They don’t seem to pressure the QB effectively for long stretches, and when they get there … it’s rare that the pressure results in a sack.
That was the case in Week 4, with Baker Mayfield scrambling time after time for first downs that extended drives and kept the defense on the field forever. This time around I like the Saints’ chances a bit better because you can get Zack Baun on the field in those third and long situations, and I have a feeling had he been the guy chasing Baker previously, that’d have been a different story.
I have just as big questions on the other side of the ball. The Saints will be sending Landon Young out for his third consecutive start, and I think one thing that is easy to spot in the NFL is that when you’re at a talent deficit, tape is not your friend. The more chances defensive lines get to see exactly where you struggle most, the easier it will be for them to target that and exploit. My guess is you send a lot of TE help to the right side, and that’ll mean Andrus Peat has to hold up.
One way or the other, the Saints’ ability in the trenches will be a major theme in this matchup. It’s one of the biggest reasons I don’t like their odds to keep the NFC South race going through Week 18.
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3. THE JUWAN JOHNSON GAME?
I don’t think what we all saw last year and throughout training camp was a mirage, Juwan Johnson should be effective in this offense. He should be a weapon up the seam. He should be a walking mismatch. I think we’ve seen signs of that growing in the last two games.
Juwan caught a 23-yard touchdown against the Giants on a well designed and executed play. He caught a red zone touchdown against the Rams and has hauled in a handful of chunk plays on athletic catches. The confidence and chemistry between he and Derek Carr seems to be getting to where you’d have liked it to be all season.
Could this finally be the game where a Saints TE dominates a matchup? Gosh, that would sure be nice. Because as much confidence as I have in Chris Olave, I just don’t know how much you overload the guy as he continues to work back from that ankle.
It’s time for the Juwan we were promised: 7 catches, 120 yards, 2 TDs.
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LAGNIAPPE…
I don’t think Alvin Kamara has lost a step, so why is he having so much trouble getting going? It’s the age old issue: I don’t care how good the running back is, if you don’t create holes to run through, he’s going to look bad. There are only two games left in the year, so it’s hard to imagine any major wrinkles left to come, but it’s been a long time since this offense made AK’s life any easier. … Chris Olave says he’s still battling the ankle issue, but how close to 100% is he? I’d guess he was somewhere around 70% against the Rams, which makes his performance all the more remarkable. Still there were some plays that I think he couldn’t make that he would normally. If he’s back closer to 85-90%, I like the Saints’ chances a lot more. ... Dennis Allen is in his 5th head coaching season and has yet to finish a year with a winning record. 9-8 wouldn't exactly be a dream finish, but it would signify a 4-1 finish and some positive momentum. The Saints went 3-1 to close out the season a year ago. Now, if this game goes a certain way, who knows what the team does, but if you're of the belief that DA is returning as head coach for at least one more year (as I do), the finishing strong trait isn't exactly a negative one. But, again, that's only the case with a win. All this is to say: This game still means a lot, even if you don't believe the playoff chances are realistic.
