The New Orleans Saints head down to Miami for a football game for the first time since 2010. Maybe the good vibes are still in effect?
The Dolphins have been rolling lately despite a difficult start to the season with wins in their past four games, and their defense has been surging. Can Tyler Shough and the Saints finally get their offense untracked after mustering just 3 points in a Week 12 loss to the Falcons?
The Saints have been relying on young players all season, but they'll need even more to step up for that to happen this week. To borrow a Kellen Moore phrase ... time to to take advantage of some opps.
THE GAME | Saints (2-9) at Dolphins (4-7)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Nov. 30
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
- Series history: Dolphins lead 7-6
- Last meeting: 2021, Dolphins 20, Saints 3
- Betting: Saints +5.5; over/under 41.5
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First take with Steve Geller & Charlie Long, 8 to 10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10 a.m. to noon
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm looking for (and some lagniappe) in the Saints' Week 13 showdown in Miami.
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1. Devin's day
The New Orleans Saints for the first time this season won't have Alvin Kamara as their lead back. That's not a good thing, but it does allow us to get another answer in this developmental season: What, exactly, does Devin Neal have to offer?
The rookie out of Kansas dealt with an ankle injury throughout the week, but he'll be good to go and I expect him to be as close to a bellcow as we've seen all year. The options behind him are Audric Estime, Evan Hull and Taysom Hill. I expect Estime to be active and technically the RB2, but I don't expect a big role.
It'll be Neal on early downs and Neal on tough downs. It'll be Taysom in spurts, and it'll be Estime when necessary. I expect 20-plus touches and we'll have to see what he can do with them. Coaches and teammates have raved about his intelligence and rookie QB Tyler Shough sees his fellow rookie as an all-around player.
"We have a really good relationship and just what he does from a mental standpoint, preparation-wise, super smart, protection, he was running the ball really, really well and just catching passes," Shough said. "That’s kind of his strength is just being able to do it all, so really excited for him and obviously he’s fully capable of everything that we’re asking him to do and he’s going to continue to keep getting it.”
To this point I've been impressed. He seems to be able to pick his way through traffic for hard yards and has enough burst to get out in the open field. He's a threat in the pass game, though I wouldn't say he's got the surest hands in the world. The Saints probably need 100 total yards out of him to give the offense a chance to operate the way they want.
The matchup would certainly seem to provide an opportunity. Miami is in the bottom five in the league in terms of yards allowed before contact and yards allowed after contact. They've shored things up lately, but when the defense has struggled it's coincided with getting gashed on the ground.
Let's see what the kid's got.
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2. Charlie's chance
Speaking of kids, it's time for Charlie boy to take his swings.
The Saints waived Blake Grupe and signed Cade York to the practice squad, but it was Smyth who emerged from a kicking competition this week with the first shot at the job. He remains on the practice squad but was elevated on Saturday. That fact alone means this could be a short run if things don't go well, as the Saints could simply opt to elevate York instead for Week 14.
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It's a big moment for Smyth and also the International Pathway Program that brought him to the NFL. There will be a lot of eyes on the second-year kicker and they won't all be Saints fans. It sounds like Smyth's parents were able to catch a flight along with a host of others from the program he emerged from eager to watch the kid kick. It'll be a 7 p.m. kickoff in Northern Ireland. Can he deliver in their version of prime time? (Also: I fully intend henceforth to refer to all noon kickoffs as "Irish prime time.")
“The support has been unreal," Smyth said, "so hopefully I can go out and represent everybody else at home as well, so I take great pride in that.”
The conditions won't be perfect at Hard Rock Stadium. The forecast calls for some consistent wind and maybe some precipitations, but that's nothing for a kid from Northern Ireland.
We know all about the leg strength and it'll be fascinating if the Saints get into a situation where a 60-plus-yard kick is on the table, but that's not where I need to see Smyth succeed. When he's struggled it's been inside of 40. I'm particularly concerned about extra points, which need to be a 95% and up, and probably need to be 100% today. If he gives back the job, it won't be because of long misses, it'll be because of short ones.
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3. Dangerous De'Von
The Dolphins' offense doesn't have Tyreek Hill anymore and the weapons don't exactly jump off the page. It's Jaylen Waddle downfield and De'Von Achane in the backfield. If you can handle those guys, you can handle the Dolphins. That's a lot easier said than done.
There are only three running backs in the NFL with 9 or more 20-plus-yard runs. The names are Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane. He's as explosive as they come.
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What De'Von isn't: A power back. He can be bottled up. The Dolphins' run game ranks 26th in the NFL in yards before contact (.87), and 1st in yards after contact (3.9). Missed tackles can be deadly.
The Dolphins also have had their runs stuffed 22.3% of the time this season, the second highest rate in the NFL. It's the definition of boom or bust.
This is going to be a game about fundamentals. The Mike McDaniel offense is very similar to what we saw last year with Klint Kubiak. It's a lot of wide zone, aimed at getting the defense flowing the edge of the field and cutting back through the gaps. The Saints need to handle that well. They need to rally to the ball. They need to wrap up and not let go. They need to do it all day.
If the Saints can prevent Achane from adding to that explosive run total, they give themselves a chance.
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LAGNIAPPE
The Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa have the fastest time to throw (2.56 seconds) in the NFL this season. It's a lot of quick passing game and throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. It's a frustrating matchup for a defensive line. Those guys will need to rush with composure so they can rally to tackles. I'd also like to see them get hands up often to bat the ball down. ... The Dolphins, not unlike the Falcons last week, are among the league leaders at sending extra rushers. They rank third in the NFL in blitz rate at 35.3%. The difference is while the Falcons are second in the NFL in sacks, the Dolphins only have 21 sacks all year (26th). The Falcons blitz because they want to, the Dolphins blitz because they have to. The Saints' protection plan will be tested and they have to handle it. ... The good news for LSU is they'll be getting Taliese Fuaga back for the first time since he went out with a high ankle sprain against the Rams in Week 9. That means they'll effectively have their starters for this week, with Asim Richards heading back to the bench. ... Chris Olave battled back spasms throughout the week and was listed as questionable for the game. I'd be surprised if he doesn't play, but if he looks a bit limited out there, you'll know why. ... Dante Pettis was called up for a third and final time this week. He'll be handling punt return duties again. If the Saints want him to continue doing that beyond this week, they'll have to sign him to the active roster. ... Demario Davis has 102 tackles. He only needs 34 more the rest of the way to set a new career high. ... Juwan Johnson set a new career high in targets last week. He needs two catches and 12 yards to set new career highs in those two metrics as well.