It’s been quite a year in New Orleans Saints football. A fifth straight missed postseason was clinched more than a month ago, but there’s a different feel to this one.
A lot of that has been generated over the second half of the season, and particularly in the midst of a four-game winning streak heading into a Week 18 showdown with the Falcons. Just ask Demario Davis, who told me this week:
"Each season is different. … No matter where you are, you’ve still got to build it, you know, from the ground up," he said, "but I certainly think there have been things that are happening this year that has positioned this organization to be able to take a step toward another level that probably wasn’t available this year.”
Why is that? Well, the Saints feature a defense that’s surged in the second half of the year and ranks toward the top of the league in several key metrics. But a lot boils down to belief. Belief in the head coach, belief in the quarterback. Belief that better days are ahead.
That belief permeating the locker room is the most important thing, but it’s a lot more tangible when it permeates the fanbase. We’ve started to see glimpses of that throughout a four-game winning streak headlined by three game-winning drives and back-to-back 300-yard passing performances from Tyler Shough.
THE GAME | Saints (6-10) at Falcons (7-9)
- When: noon, Sunday, Jan. 4
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
- Series history: Falcons lead 57-56
- Last meeting: 2025, Falcons 24, Saints 10
- Betting: ATL -3.5; over/under 43.5
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Steve Geller & Charlie Long, 8 to 10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10 a.m. to noon
Can the Saints and Shough make it No. 5 in Week 18? Here are the three things we’re watching for (and some lagniappe) as the Saints face down the Falcons.
First Things First... Proxy War
The bizarrest scenario you could think to end the season has occurred. The Bucs took down the Panthers and both teams are 8-9. That means the NFC South title between the Bucs and Panthers comes down to Saints-Falcons. Seriously.
The scenario is simple:
- If Saints win: Bucs win division
- If Falcons win: Panthers win division
That's because the Bucs would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Panthers. Simple enough. If the Falcons win, they would enter a three-way tiebreaker that would be decided by head-to-head matchups. The Panthers swept the Falcons, thus they come out ahead.
Whether the Saints or Falcons use the stakes as motivation, who knows, but what it definitely means is there will be a lot of eyeballs on a game that would otherwise be swept into the corner as the regular season draws to a close. The Saints didn't have a national TV game this year, this is probably the closest they've had to a national audience. Let's see what they can get done.
━━
1. Well, Shough
You can count me among the camp that feels like I’ve seen everything I need to feel comfortable and confident — heck, you might even say excited — for the Saints moving forward with Tyler Shough as “THE GUY.” I put that in quotations because every team has A GUY, but not every team has THE GUY. If you don’t have it, Priority No. 1 is always trying to find it.
The Saints won’t be in the QB market this offseason. Nothing that happens in Week 18 will change that, but it will give an image of just how advanced Shough really is.
Why? Well, let’s go ahead and run down the Saints WR and RB depth chart going into the game:
WR1: Kevin Austin Jr.
WR2: Dante Pettis
WR3: Ronnie Bell
WR4: Samori Toure
RB1: Audric Estime
RB2: Evan Hull
RB3: Nyheim Hines
You can also go ahead and slot Taysom Hill in there wherever you see fit.
The Saints haven’t exactly been overflowing with weapons since Shough took over, but this takes things to a new extreme. Chris Olave is down this week due to the reported discovery of a blood clot in the WR’s lung that sent him to the hospital. Mason Tipton is also inactive with a groin injury. Rashid Shaheed was traded at the deadline and Brandin Cooks was cut not long after.
That means the top seven skill players are guys who either started the year on the practice squad or not here at all.
“I feel like we just don’t care. ... We’re here for a reason. We’re going to go out there and operate," Shough told me after the win over the Titans. "There’s no, 'ah, man, if we had this' or 'ah, this is a good opponent.' Let’s go out there and play football, man. This is why you do it, and that’s kind of my message, like, what a great opportunity. Next man up, now you get to go make plays.”
The young QB would be forgiven if things spiraled on him against a quality Falcons defense that gave Matthew Stafford and the Rams fits last week. There will be folks quick to dogpile for one reason or another if that happens. But what if it doesn’t?
There are a lot of things that I hear brought up about Drew Brees. The Super Bowl run, the touchdown streak, the 5000-yard seasons among a host of other accolades. But among the most unique came on Nov. 22, 2018 when he threw four touchdown passes in a win over the Falcons, all to undrafted players. Can you name them? I’ll give you a second.
.
.
.
.
That list consists of:
- WR Austin Carr
- TE Dan Arnold
- WR Keith Kirkwood
- WR Tommylee Lewis
Pettis is a former 2nd round pick and Toure a 7th rounder, so it might not have quite the same ring to it, but we’ll all understand the feat if it happens.
Everyone would prefer to have brand name weapons, but the thing about elite NFL QBs is how capabale they can make your offense look when they’re not out there.
It’s a challenge that could go badly. It’s also an opportunity to do something people will remember for a long time.
Oh, and it’d probably end the Rookie of the Year debate, too. A win and they might as well hand it to him walking off the field.
━━
2. Bijan's House
What makes this matchup intimidating for the Saints is that while they have very few of their own offensive weapons, the Falcons have their full assortment.
Drake London is back after missing the first matchup and Kyle Pitts has exploded over the second half of the season and as Kirk Cousins has settled into the starting role after the season-ending injury to Michael Penix.
But at the end of the day neither of those two players is my biggest concern. That is and will always be Bijan Robinson, who can singlehandedly take over a game as effectively as anyone in the game today. Just ask the Rams, with Robinson accounting for 229 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in the MNF upset. His 93-yard touchdown run in the second quarter set the tone for what was to come and it was also a perfect example of what Kellen Moore said this week about the Falcons do-it-all back.
“You can do a lot of things right and if one thing is wrong it’s a touchdown," Moore said. "That’s the story of a lot of the plays this year and so he impacts the game in every element, run game obviously, the pass game, he can take a check down and turn it into an explosive play.”
It’s true, and so is the fact that how Bijan goes typically tells you how the Falcons go.
Here’s how his yardage splits up this season:
in 7 wins: 180.9 per game (1,266 total)
in 10 losses: 98.9 per game (989 total)
If the Saints can bottle him up — there’s no such thing as taking away that dyamic of a player — in the 100-yard range, they’ll give themselves the best chance to win the game. The good and bad thing is that the Saints actually did that in their first matchup this season, limiting Robinson to 107 total yards (70 rushing and 37 receiving). The Falcons still won by 14 points. It was actually the lowest yardage output by Bijan in any of the Falcons’ wins this season.
Despite what I just said, I still think doing that again is the biggest key to the Saints pulling this game out. It’s easy to forget just how many missed opportunities the Saints had in that game, but there were two missed field goals and two trips to the 1 yard line that didn’t result in touchdowns. If the Saints cash in for 6 on even one of those trips it’s a completely different game.
It sounds a lot simpler than it is. The Saints have similar depth concerns on the interior DL with Bryan Bresee (knee) missing a second consecutive game and Nathan Shepherd (knee/ankle) ruled out after battling injuries for the past several weeks. They may need to bulk up to stuff the run on the interior, which would potentially leave them outleveraged if/when he finds a soft edge.
You can go ahead and add Tyler Allgeier to this conversation, too. He’s a player that almost never gets talked about but is as consistent as they come. Let’s see what happens.
━━
3. Taysom (one more) Time?
We talked about all the missing pieces above, so I don’t need to do that here, but it begs the question: Hey Taysom, how much you got left in the tank?
Things didn’t go well the first time around in that regard. Taysom went for just 17 on his 10 carries and 0-2 on passing attempts. His struggles were emblematic of the red zone woes that truly defined that game. Still, I’m willing to mine for that Falcons-killing magic one final time (because I do think this is Taysom’s final game in a Saints uniform).
Here’s a reminder of exactly what Taysom has accomplished in his 17 torturous matchups against the Falcons in his career:
RUSHING
- 82 carries
- 493 yards
- 6 TDs
RECEIVING
- 12 catches
- 136 yards
- 1 TD
PASSING
57-77 (74%)
702 yards
4 TDs
MISC.
3-0 as QB starter
4 kick returns (96 yards)
1 tackle
1 blocked punt
1 turkey leg
He’s been particulary effective at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, so take that for what it is. I just think he has to be a big part of the gameplan. There’s no way around it. I don’t necessarily need him to be the entire red zone offense the way he was in the first matchup, but there’s got to be a middle ground. I also have to imagine there are still a few unscouted looks left in the bag as far as he’s concerned. To quote Dan Fouts about another Louisiana football team: Last game of the year, Brent, can't hold anything back now.
━━
LAGNIAPPE
To dovetail of the point above, I think the run game is pivotal in general, whether it’s Taysom or Audric Estime keying the attack. In the first matchup it wasn’t until the Saints dedicated themselves to the run game in the third quarter that they started to take control. The Falcons’ young pass-rushers would love nothing more than watching Tyler Shough drop back 50 times. If I’m the Saints I HAVE to run the ball 25 times and I’d rather lose the game trying to establish the run than allow James Pearce, Jalon Walker and the Falcons pass rush to tee off my rookie QB (which they did 5 times in the first meeting). … It appears the Saints will have a different backup QB this week with Jake Haener elevated from the practice squad. Spencer Rattler has been dealing with a finger injury and did not practice all week. It will only end up affecting the game if Shough goes out with an injury OR the Saints decide to lean into the tank a bit and sit their starter. I don’t expect that to happen, but mentioning just in case. … The player I haven’t mentioned yet is Juwan Johnson, and that’s because I see this as a very difficult scenario for him. If you’re the Falcons he’s got to be the only guy you can’t let beat you. I don’t see a world where they don’t do their best to take him away and force Shough to win with literally anyone else. We’ll see how that plays out. … Something about these Falcons-Saints matchups just feels heavier. That was the case a few yeaers back when the Saints blew out the Falcons (finishing with the victory formation TD to Jamaal Willams), a result that immediately preceded Arthur Smith’s firing. Raheem Morris is only in Year 2 and it’d be a surprise to see him get the axe after a strong finish to the year and with his starting QB ending it on IR, but if they put up a stinker against an injury-riddled Saints squad, who knows. It’d be a fun subplot to be able to say the Saints have gotten Falcons coaches fired twice in the past three seasons. Just saying. … Demario Davis set a new career high in tackles last week, and despite a calf issue that held him out for the final defensive series against the Titans, it appears he’s good to go. He also confirmed that he’s all-in on playing a 15th season. Cam Jordan has said the same thing. Will the front office oblige and keep those guys in black and gold? … Speaking of Cam, he’s still leading the Saints in sacks with 9.5 heading into Week 18, but Chase Young is hot on his heels with 8.5. It won’t mean a ton in the bigger picture, but a double-digit sack season at age 35 would feel like a pretty hefty footnote on his Hall of Fame resume. … Kellen Moore has a chance to do something that’s only happened a handful of times in Saints history, and that’s lead a team on a five-game winning streak as a first-year head coach, a feat only matched by Jim Haslett, whose team won six consecutive games in 2000. . … Despite being dismissed by many around the league (myself included) Kirk Cousins has shown a lot in hi slate takeover of the Falcons offense. He’s 148-237 (62%) for 1,541 yards and 9 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. I’m still going to call him Mr. League Average, but he’s at least back to that.