As the NFL season wears on, Thursday Night Football often seems to become less about the teams on the field as it is about the players that can actually run out there.
That's certainly the case in Week 7, which both the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars attempting to weather major injury issues affecting stars on both sides of the ball.
Will Trevor Lawrence play through a knee injury? If he does, how effective can he actually be? The same goes for Demario Davis, who hasn't missed a game due to an injury in his 12-year NFL career. It feels unlikely he starts now.
THE GAME | Jaguars (4-2) at Saints (3-3)
- When: 7:15 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 19
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- TV: Prime Video; NFL+
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: Fans First Take with Jeff Nowak & Steve Geller, 3-5 p.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Bobby Hebert & Steve Geller, 5-7 p.m.
As you might have guessed, health will be a major talking point in my three things to watch. With that in mind, let's dive in.
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1. WHO STEPS IN AT TACKLE?
It's official: Both starting tackles from Week 6 are out for the Saints in Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst. So who replaces them?
The first question to answer is exactly how resolved the team is to sit Trevor Penning to, as Dennis Allen put it, allow him to "step back" and gain some "perspective" in that way. However you interpret that, they didn't make that decision on a whim. Even with Andrus Peat unable to start at guard last week, the Saints still stuck with the plan and turned to Max Garcia. Will they go that route again?
If they do, options are limited. Landon Young would be an obvious option, but he's out again with a hip injury. The Saints brought in Storm Norton during the offseason, but he was signed off the practice squad by the Falcons a few weeks back. Not an option. There only appears to be one viable candidate currently on the roster, and it's a bit of a surprise: Andrus Peat.
The former first round pick came into the league as a tackle and knows what he's doing out there, but he hasn't seen significant action at the position since 2018. Regardless, don't be surprised to see him there.
On the other side the Saints used Cesar Ruiz as an emergency tackle last week despite him never playing the position before in a game situation. It's good to know he can do that in a pinch, but it's certainly not ideal. The most likely options to fill in are on the practice squad in the form of another former first round pick Cam Erving, who was signed several weeks back. Don't be surprised to see him signed to the active roster before the game. UDFA Mark Andrews could also be in the mix as a practice squad call-up.
Whomever the Saints turn to at those positions, it'll be a huge factor in how this game plays out.
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2. STOP THE RUN
The New Orleans Saints have done a lot of things well in the first six weeks of the season, but there's been a common theme in the two losses that didn't involve a 4th quarter collapse: 1st down run defense.
In Week 4 the Bucs ran the ball on first down 16 times. They racked up 72 yards on those plays, a solid average of 4.4 yards per carry that was dinged by some clock-salting plays late. Four of those runs went for 7 yards or more. The result was a lot of 2nd/3rd and medium situations, which leaves the offense in a very advantageous situation.
In the first half against the Texans? That was 59 yards on 12 attempts, an average of 4.9 yards per carry.
On the season the Saints are allowing a 3.9 YPC average, have allowed just one rushing touchdown, tied for 1st in the NFL, and 28 rushing first downs, tied for 6th in the NFL.
Being successful on first down leads directly to success on third down. The difference between 3rd and 3 and 3rd and 7 is massive. That'll be particularly true this week against a Jaguars team that is tied for 8th in the NFL with an average of 4.7 yards per carry behind star back Travis Etienne. It's also an offense that will either be doing its best to protect a banged-up Trevor Lawrence or his backup C.J. Beathard. If the Saints can force the Jags, who have a banged up OL of their own, into passing situations, they could be in for a long day.
It's a cliche, but it'll be particularly true this week: Stop the run, then have fun. If the Saints don't, yikes.
3. EXECUTE
Execution. Communication. Preparation. Consistency. Urgency. Pick a buzzword, any buzzword, we've heard them all.
What we haven't heard is a plan for how this team intends to get there, though I'd like to think one exists. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael has found himself in the crosshairs, deservedly so, as he leads an group that has managed just five passing touchdowns through six games. Execution has been particularly dreadful in the red zone -- with the exception of an outlier in New England -- where they're ranked 28th in the league at a 36.8% conversion rate. At the end of the day it's got to be better, and that falls on everybody.
Things won't be easy behind a patchwork OL, but that can't be the excuse for the type of sloppy play we've seen. QB and WR frequently on two different pages, confusion at the line, penalty after penalty in key situations, we've seen it all.
That said, the Saints OC spoke this week about streamlining the gameplan a bit, and I think that'll be helpful. It might come with an exaggerated eyeroll in response from fans, but complex isn't always better. The best offenses aren't constantly relying on smoke and mirrors to beat defenses, they're beating them with talent and execution. A bit of deception is always good, but the high-flying Saints offenses of the past decade were beating people with talent and execution. They were getting into the right calls at the right time. They said our best is better than your best, and they were right.
On a short week there's really no choice but to keep things simple, and I think that'll be for the best. Find ways to get Chris Olave in space and get him involved early. Run some dang slants for Mike Thomas. Take advantage of the 6-7 tight end, or at least make the attempt to do that. Get the ball in Alvin Kamara's hands early and often.
This offense needs to get into a rhythm and to this point it feels like it's been trying to outsmart itself. Get back to the basics and do it well. Results will follow.
LAGNIAPPE
For now I'm willing to look at Blake Grupe's Week 6 disaster as an outlier. But this week will be huge for the young kicker to prove that's what it was, rather than a disturbing trend. He can be forgiven for missing his first ever clutch kick. I'm also not going to hold a 52-yarder over his head, though indoors that should be nearly automatic. But a kick from 29? You shouldn't have to kick from their in the first place, but it's also got to be automatic. I need to see the kid get back on track, and I think he will. ... Chris Olave has drawn criticism over the last few weeks for a perceived lack of effort on some plays. His head coach addressed it directly when asked after Week 4 against the Bucs, and he was asked about it again this week. He pointed to consistency, it needs to be there, and that goes for everyone. At the end of the day Olave is too talented for effort to be a part of the conversation. It has to be there on every play. I'll be looking at him to prove that's the case this week. ... How much work will Jamaal Williams get on his first game back (assuming he plays) from his stint on IR with a hamstring injury? His short-yardage ability will be a major benefit to this team when he's up to speed. I'm just not sure whether that's going to be the case this week. ... If Demario Davis isn't 100%, which the injury report would indicate is the case, could this be a Jaylon Smith week? He's been hanging out on the practice squad seemingly for this exact reason. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get elevated for the first time this season.
