The New Orleans Saints head into a third consecutive home game in need of a bounceback performance in the worst way, but will they find it against a Vikings defense that has allowed the fewest points in the NFL?
THE GAME | Vikings (4-0) at Saints (1-3)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Oct. 11
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Series history: Vikings lead 25-13
- Last meeting: 2023, Vikings won 27-19
- Betting: MIN -2.5; o/u 41.5
- TV: FOX
- LISTEN: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- PREGAME: First Take with Steve Geller & Jeff Nowak, 8 to 10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10 a.m. to noon
With all that in mind, scroll below for out three biggest things to watch (and some lagniappe) for the Week 5 showdown in the Superdome.
1. CAN YOU BOUNCE BACK?
When you hear several different players refer to a mantra of catchphrase in the span of a few days, it's often because that's been a talking point behind the scenes. This week it's been referring to the season to this point as the "first quarter."
You wouldn't quit on an NFL game -- or any game that matter -- just because one team got up big in the first frame of action. It's almost impossible to truly blow a game in the first quarter. It is, however, very possible to do that if things are course-corrected by the end of the first half.
The same holds true for the Saints 2026 season. The first four games, the first quarter, are what they are. They can't be changed.
Here are some notable numbers from that stretch that probably need to change drastically:
- PPG allowed: 32 (most in NFL)
- QB pressures: 46 (T23/32)
- 10-yard runs allowed: 15 (T28/32)
- Rush yards per game allowed: 147.8 (30/32)
- Takeaways: 3 (T23/32)
- Total pass plays: 192 (most in NFL)
- QB pressures allowed: 73 (31/32)
- Sacks allowed: 12 (28/32)
- Rush yards per game: 88.5 (27/32)
- Avg. rush yards before contact: 0.98 (24/32)
- Avg. rush yards after contact: 2.6 (22/32)
- Giveaways: 8 (T26/32)
- First quarter points per game: 1.5 (30/32)
That's a lot of ugly numbers. But it's not to say the Saints haven't done things well. They've been elite in the red zone (80%; T4/32) TD rate and on third down (50%; 4/32). Tyler Shough is among the league leaders in passing yards and has navigated well in a difficult situation and Chris Olave has emerged as one of the league's star pass-catchers.
Still, too many negatives can easily wash out all the good that's happened. Nowhere was that clearly than in an ugly loss to the Falcons on Monday Night Football.
This team was embarrassed. That's not a word that gets thrown around lightly, but it's one that we heard from multiple players. So the question becomes, how do you respond.
The first quarter of the season was a difficult four-game stretch. This team went 1-3. The second quarter of the season starts with an unbeaten Vikings squad that has dominated defensively, followed by an extended road trip against the Giants and the Steelers in Paris.
The first four games haven't defined this team's season, but they've made it so the next three games absolutely can and almost definitely will.
What type of season will this be? How will this group be remembered? Do you respond to the first true bit of adversity by fighting tooth and nail, or do you lie down and accept it? I think Week 5 is where we truly start to find out.
2. CAN YOU HANDLE THE BLITZ?
The Vikings are, statistically, the best defense in the NFL. It's not hard to identify why.
This is a team that has been ticking upward each year under Brian Flores in terms of blitz rate, and they've reached critical mass this season. Through four weeks the Vikings have blitzed on 67.9% of their defensive plays, a truly absurd number. The next closest team is the Commanders at 44.4%.
They've also been elite in doing so. This is a team that leads the NFL is points per game allowed (12.8), is third in QB pressures (74) and first in sacks (16). In most cases you might say: Well, if we stay ahead of the chains, establish the run, etc., you can stop the blitzes from coming.
Nope. This team blitzes early. They blitz late. They blitz on run downs. They blitz on pass downs. They do it out of all sorts of defensive personnel. They send all sorts of different players. They've developed a scheme that erases the question of "how do you stop them from blitzing" and replaces it with "how do you handle it when it comes."
The most remarkable element is, to this point, no one has been able to burn them. What would traditionally be the answer as to why not just blitz all the time is, as Saints OC Doug Nussmeier put it, "there's a lot of grass to cover." Sending extra rushers exposes the secondary, assuming the QB has time to attack it.
Just look at the Saints last week. They blitzed the Falcons on 52.4% of their defensive snaps, up drastically from 27% a week earlier. The result was five explosive plays allowed (20-plus yards), a figure that nearly doubled their total through the first three games (6).
The Vikings, despite blitzing at least 54% of the time in every game, have allowed 12 total explosive pass plays, and just one run of 20-plus.
If the Saints can get ahead of the chains and establish the run, something that is yet to be the case this year, things will get easier. But Tyler Shough is going to be pressured. He's going to get hit. He'll need to be consistent and reset after each play, good or bad. If he can do that, the Saints will have a chance -- because as good as the Vikings defense has been at preventing points, their offense hasn't scored a touchdown in 32 consecutive possessions.
First team to 20 wins, in my opinion.
3. CAN YOU BE PERFECT ON SPECIAL TEAMS?
Special teams is often the forgotten element of any NFL game, but the longer you watch, the easier it is to identify just how much it can tilt a matchup. That becomes particularly important in games that figure to be low-scoring, as this one appears like it will be.
Look no further than the Saints' lone win of the season, when they blocked a kick, had a big kickoff return to set up points, took advantage of all their kicking opportunities and didn't allow a single yard in punt coverage. In the two games since we've seen a blocked PAT and a missed 52-yarder, a kick short of the landing zone and poor starting field position.
It does appear the Saints will have Barion Brown back in action for this game and hopefully he can make an impact. But if there was ever a game for Daniel Carlson to maximize his kicking opportunities, it's this game. The Vikings are a team you can beat kicking field goals, because they've been winning games kicking field goals. Will Reichard is currently 12-for-12 on field goals and 6-for-6 on PATS. In the return game, Vikings WR Myles Price currently leads the NFL in punt return average (20.1) and has already brought one back for an 86-yard TD. He also ranks third in the NFL in kickoff return average (30.2), and has a 68-yard return to his credit already this season.
If either team is able to steal points on special teams, whether that's in coverage or the return game, the chances to take the win in Week 5 skyrocket.
LAGNIAPPE
Alvin Kamara entered the weekend with a questionable tag (back). I expect him to play, but this team has already seemed reluctant to give him a heavy workload. I'd love to see this be the week where rookie CJ Donaldson gets some early down work. He's been solid in pass protection, but his presence on the field has also been a clear tell for defenses to send pressure. Hopefully things look a bit more creative this week (maybe even a screen?). ... The Vikings enter the game with some real question marks. OT Christian Darrisaw is out (concussion), but they have confidence in Ryan Van Demark filling in. Their top two WRs in Jordan Addison (hamstring) and Justin Jefferson (ankle) are questionable. I'd be stunned if Jefferson doesn't get on the field to take advantage of a homecoming game. If he doesn't maybe it's Odell Beckham Jr., who signed with the Minnesota practice squad this week, but has familiarity with the scheme based on his time with the Rams, where Kevin O'Connell served as the OC. ... Aaron Jones is really the only name to consider in the run game this week, along with QB Kyler Muray. With Jordan Mason on IR, the Vikings have only given nine total carries to backups Demond Claiborne and Deejay Dallas. ... The Vikings have allowed the second most sacks in the NFL (13) but have only surrendered 47 QB pressures (24th). It'll be imperative for the Saints to take advantage of those opportunities. ... The Saints have the option to bring one or both of rookie CB Lorenzo Styles Jr. and LB Jaylan Ford back from IR this week. I expect Ford to return and have a role, perhaps spelling Danny Stutsman or Pete Werner with Kaden Elliss (calf) missing a second consecutive week. ... Blake Cashman leads all inside linebackers with 16 pressures this season, while edge Dallas Turner leads the NFL in that category (29). Expect to hear their names a lot this week. ... Vikings linebacker Eric Wilson is familiar with the Saints. He was on the Vikings defense in 2020 when Alvin Kamara went off for his record-tying six rushing TDs and also spent some time with the Saints in 2022 before being signed off New Orleans' practice squad. ...
