What looked like surefire win for the Saints at the start of the season is now a gotta have it win. Detroit notched their first win last week against the Arizona Cardinals. The Saints lost two straight since opening the season with a win over Tampa. Let’s go inside the matchups:
DREW BREES vs MATHEW STAFFORD: First, let me get this out of the way. Saints fans don’t buy the narrative that Brees has lost him arm strength. With that said, I think this matchup is where the game will be won or lost. Stafford is having a decent season so far. I’ve see better from former No. 1 overall picks. He’s thrown for 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s with 811 yards through the air. Stafford can be a little inaccurate at times and has the proclivity to throw the other team a couple of passes. Quietly, Brees is having an effective season, tossing 6 TD’s and just 1 INT and has 760 yards through the air. Oh, and he’s completing 70% of his passes. Don’t tell the haters that, though. They won’t believe you. Stafford is completing just 62% of his passes. Brees is still the superior quarterback over Stafford. The Saints hold the advantage in this matchup.
SAINTS OFFENSE vs LIONS DEFENSE: The Lions like to play a lot of man to man coverage. Detroit struggles getting stops on third down. Opponents are 16 out of 40 on third down. Teams are converting 40% of their third downs against Detroit. Haters would tell you the Saints struggle to convert third downs this year. Not true! New Orleans is converting 45.6% of their third down opportunities. Bear with me here. Since 2006, the Saints have been the best in the NFL in converting third downs. You know what they average over 14 seasons? I’ll help you out….46%. The offense isn’t struggling as bad as you might think. Detroit’s defense has trouble forcing turnovers, and the Saints do a pretty good job protecting the football. Even though the Saints offense looks out of sync, I think they find their stride this week. Advantage New Orleans.
LIONS OFFENSE vs SAINTS DEFENSE: If the Saints haven’t solved their coverage issues in the passing game, they are going to get cut to pieces by QB Mathew Stafford. The Saints defense is way more talented than their performance indicates. I imagine the Saints will dial up a few more pressure packages to get after Stafford. The pass rush has been less than stellar for New Orleans. All-Pro defensive end Cam Jordan hasn’t registered a sack yet. That fact has to change this week in order to secure a win over the Lions. Detroit holds the advantage in this matchup.
SAINTS SPECIAL TEAMS vs LIONS SPECIAL TEAMS: Returner Deonte Harris averages 14.6 yards a punt return. That’s the best in the entire league. His counterpart on the Lions has a higher average (17.5) on just two returns. Harris has five return attempts. Matt Prater handles the kicking duties for Detroit. He’s got a big time leg, and can bang kicks through the uprights from 50+ yards consistently. Will Lutz is just as good. Jack Fox is the punter for the Lions. He’s a newcomer to the league. Veteran Thomas Morstead averages 40 yards per punt. That’s a pretty big drop off from career average of 47 yards per punt. He’s so good at directional kicking, so that might make up for some distance lost. New Orleans still holds the advantage here, because of their elite coverage in the kicking game.
SEAN PAYTON vs MATT PATRICIA: Payton hasn’t exhibited his usual sharp mind masterful play calling. He’s not exactly in a groove. With that said, Payton is lightning years ahead of Matt Patricia as a head coach. The Lions are 10 and 24 with Patricia at the helm. Those are some cringe worthy win/loss totals.
BOTTOM LINE: You might have raised an eyebrow last week when the previously winless Lions knocked off the previously undefeated Arizona Cardinals. I get it. If you look closely at that game, you will see the Cardinals outplayed the Lions in every way. The problem is, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray threw three interceptions. That’s what led to the Lions getting the W. If the Saints don’t go up to Motown with their best, they will get beat. If New Orleans doesn’t turn the ball over and commit a bunch of silly penalties, they will beat Detroit convincingly.
PREDICTION: The Saints reboot and win over the Lions. 33-18 the Saints will be 2-2 coming home for a Monday night matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers in week 5.
