As we hit Week 10 it occurs to me I haven’t spent a great deal of time this season, in this space, talking about the turnovers derailing the Saints.
It feels like pouring salt in an open wound, and it’s been the elephant in the room since the Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay. It’s usually the main topic of discussion all week, so what’s left to say before Pittsburgh?
I just find it hard not to talk about it as the Saints enter their final eight games. The numbers are so stunning it deserves a deeper look. The Saints have turned the ball over 17 times. They have taken it away just 7 times (5 fumbles record, 2 interceptions). Tyrann Mathieu is the owner of both interceptions.
If you go back to Week 1 of the 2021 season against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Jacksonville, the Saints had two interceptions that day alone. I Just didn’t see this coming.
They come or don’t come in bunches. This year, the grand total is 2 in 10 games.
You would think to be last in the NFL you would be losing the turnover battle often, but here’s the hard part to swallow. Through nine games, the Saints have won the turnover battle in three of them. So, the team that has the NFL’s worst turnover margin (-10) has won the turnover battle 33.3 percent of the time. The really hard one to digest is Cincinnati in Week 6. The Saints won the turnover battle, rushed for 228 yards at home … and they found a way to lose the game.
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What pushed me toward this column topic was looking at some of the other teams and how they are faring in this all-important category, more specifically the teams that remain on the Saints schedule.
The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles have the best turnover margin, not surprisingly, but the total is remarkable. They are (+15) when comparing their takeaways against their giveaways. The surprising part to me isn’t that they have nabbed 18 turnovers from their opponents, it’s that they have turned it over only three times in eight games. Three, that’s it, a fumble and two interceptions. That’s exceptional.
Even with the good teams this year, at least record wise, it’s a little more balanced. Take the 6-2 Buffalo Bills. They have 15 takeaways, but have given it up 14 times, so they are (+1). The surprising New York Jets at 6-3 are also (+1) with 14 takeaways and 13 giveaways.
So here’s some good news. If you look at the top 10 teams with the best turnover margins, the Saints have played six of them. And perhaps that is one reason why they are in the top 10. At least the Saints can say that is behind them.
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And there is more positive news if, and only if, the Saints can find a way to take it away more and give it away less. Of their remaining eight opponents, only two teams are “plus” in the turnover margin, the (+15) Eagles on New Year's Day and the Tampa Bay Bucs at (+2).
Pittsburgh and their (2-6) record are (-4) in turnovers, so there is some hope, but only if the Saints can get out of the cellar in this statistical category.
Still turnovers don’t always tell the whole story, even as important as they are. The Houston Texans are (+2) in the turnover margin and have a record of 1-6-1.
The Miami Dolphins have a 6-3 record but are -3 with turnovers. They are the outliers in 2022, and usually there is a strong relationship to a team’s record and the balance of their turnovers and giveaways.
The Saints have fared poorly in both worlds so far. But like life in the NFC South, there is always hope.
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