The New Orleans Saints are one of the NFL's worst teams in the red zone, and they're led by -- statistically -- the least effective quarterback in the NFL inside the 10-yard line.
There are situational arguments to be made, but the numbers don't lie. Among quarterbacks that have attempted at least 10 passes inside the 10 yard line this season, Derek Carr's 22.5% completion rate (5-22) ranks 29th out of 29 eligible passers. As a team the Saints have converted for touchdowns on 42.5% of red zone visits. That figure is also good for 29th in the NFL.
That issue came to a head with a Week 13 loss to the Falcons that featured five red zone trips and zero touchdowns. One of those trips resulted in a 92-yard pick-6, another a Taysom Hill fumble. The Saints managed five field goals in the 24-19 loss.
Alvin Kamara said it clearly and honestly in his latest postgame, while in the process making it clear he doesn't feel that his team's offense has an identity beyond being "consistently inconsistent."
"We lost. I’m not happy about any of it," Kamara said. "I love Grupe to death, but we can’t kick field goals and win the game. It just is what it is. You’ve got to score touchdowns and we’re not scoring touchdowns and it’s blatant. It’s very evident.”
Saints head coach Dennis Allen wouldn't point the finger at his QB this week when asked about the red zone woes that have plagued his team throughout a 5-6 start to the season. He'll point to turnovers, ill-timed penalties and other issues that compound the difficulty of playing offense in a compressed field.
"We’re not really in the business of blame game," Allen said. "We’re in the business of production, and so I think we all have to be better.”
In terms of production, it has been a strange season for Carr and the Saints in that regard. Despite missing the second half of two games with injury, he's on pace to throw for 3,917 yards and has 10 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions. He's completed 65.6% of his passes and the Saints lead the NFL in pass plays of more than 40-plus yards (9). He put together a stretch of three consecutive 300-yard passing games earlier this year, marking the first time a Saints quarterback has accomplished that feat since Drew Brees in 2015.
As he and his coach have both stated, there is an explosive element to the Saints offense. The problem has been that those explosions rarely reach the end zone. The negative scoring area statistics aren't something the first-year Saints QB says he's focused on right now, though the team is working on improving in that area.
"It’s a team game and I don’t see things like that, because I don’t pay attention to things like that," Carr said this week, "and so it’s something that we’re working on and everyone wants an answer or has an answer for us, but we’re going to keep working on it in here."
One change the Saints made this week was bumping out their red zone work to Thursday, in addition to what they'll typically do on Friday. In a normal week the offense works on 1st and 2nd down on Wednesday, 3rd down on Thursday, followed by red zone and situational work on Friday. Allen and Co. are hoping that extra focus will pay off in Week 13 against the Lions.
“I think that’s frustrating for all of us, because we know we’ve been really close, and yet we’ve got to keep hammering away until we find the ways to finish some of these games and win some of these close games," Allen said. "That’s the nature of the National Football League. I mean, the majority of our games come down to being one-score games and we’ve got to be able to make critical plays at the end of the games.”
That's certainly an accurate statement for the Saints, with six of their 11 games coming down to one score in either direction. The Saints are one of just three NFL teams with a sub.-500 record and a positive point differential (+7), the others are the Chargers (4-7, +11) and the Packers (5-6, +7).
So can things get turned around, or are they too far gone? Carr and Co. say the answers are there to be delivered, and the team is working on them, though he won't divulge what those might be. He and his coach also see the identity of the offense to revolve around explosive offense.
"We’re working on answers," Carr said. "That’s what we’ve been doing, and so I appreciate everyone wanting to have the [answers], us to just say everything that we’ve been feeling and say everything we’ve seen on tape and say all the coaching points and all those things, but I’ll never do that. I know it’s just on me to keep doing it and for whoever they want to point at, please point at me, because I can handle it.”
In the end, the story of this season will come down to whether the Saints can turn that explosive offense into 7 points more often than it does 3 points. The people inside the building remain confident that it can, but for that to mean anything in 2023, it has to start now.
