The New Orleans Saints rode into the rivalry match on a high and with, seemingly, the odds in their favor. The result was anything but.
The Saints missed opportunity after opportunity in what turned into a demoralizing 24-10 loss to a Falcons team without its starting quarterback or star WR. The Saints failed to score from the Falcons 1-yard line twice, missed two field goals. If it could go wrong, it probably went wrong.
The Saints are 2-9. Enough said.
With all that in mind, here's my stock up and stock down from yet another frustrating day in the Caesars Superdome.
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STOCK DOWN
1. Red zone offense
I waffled on which of these to list first, but 7 is worth more than 3, so here we are.
In the end we shouldn't be surprised. The Saints entered Week 12 as far and away the NFL's least efficient red zone team, and their 0-for-3 mark in this game should only widen that gap, but it's how it happened that was particularly frustrating.
Kellen Moore inherited Taysom Hill, but based on his dedication to getting the veteran QB reps, you'd assume he invented the gameplan. I've been critical of the frequency that Moore has opted to take his rookie QB off the field in high-leverage situations, but this game took that to a new level.
Taysom Hill carried the ball 10 times and threw it twice. Those 12 touches resulted in 17 yards. There were some critical conversions in there, of course, and Taysom took on some key RB roles after Alvin Kamara left the game hurt. You can sell me on Taysom being the best 3rd and 4th and short option. My problem was specifically goal to go. The Saints had nine plays in those situations, here's how they went.
TRIP 1
- ATL 8: Shough right guard, +3
- ATL 5: Hill right guard, +3
- ATL 2: Shough left end, +1
- ATL 1: Hill incomplete, TOD
TRIP 2
- ATL 7: Hill right guard, no gain
- ATL 7: Hill right tackle, +2
- ATL 5: Shough left end, +4
- ATL 1: Shough left guard, no gain
- ATL 1: bad snap, throwaway (grounding): -14
The Saints have now failed to score a touchdown on three consecutive goal-to-go scenarios dating back to Week 10. Against the Falcons it was Taysom Hill getting the ball on 5 of the 9 snaps, including the play that ended each drive. Hill attempted one pass, Shough zero, though one play was an RPR that the coverage dictated turn into a run.
Look, I get it, you're trying to score and calling the plays that give you the best chance. Moore felt like the numbers advantage at the goal line would give that, he's probably right. But all I ask for is the tiniest bit of pragmatism in what is a lost season at 2-9. The Saints should be in full evaluation/development mode right now. Taysom Hill isn't the future, Tyler Shough could be. The Saints need to improve in the red zone and they need that to come from their starting quarterback. Taking away his opportunities to grow in that all-important part of the field just isn't the way. It concerns me that the head coach doesn't seem to understand that.
Oh, and we can also add to that the fact that the Taysom red zone package simply isn't working. What is being gained? It's difficult to assess what's going wrong with the red zone offense when the team refuses to run real offense. It simply has to change.
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2. Grupe ... dude
Blake Grupe is a very likable guy. He's down to Earth. He works hard. He's a good teammate. He was voted a team captain for a reason.
There's only one problem, and it's a big one: He's not making his kicks.
I'll say that I've held out longer than most. I think, generally speaking, teams are too quick to move on from players who hit a rough patch. That's especially true with kickers because their limited opportunities make every mistake magnified. I agree with the team's decision to let Blake worth through his issues, and for a time it appeared he had. After a rough start to the year Grupe had made 7 of his past 8 kicks, with the lone miss coming from 53 yards out on a windy day in Chicago.
Still, even that run came with red flags. The long kick against the Bears was the only 50-plus kick he was asked to attempt. The team has also repeatedly turned down opportunities to attempt long-range kicks inside of 60 yards. The team would never admit it, but it sure appeared to me like decisions made to protect the kicker's confidence. It could also be spun as a conservative head coach making conservative decisions. Not outside the realm of possibility.
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Then came Week 12 against the Falcons and the most damaging pair of misses to date, the first from 38, the second from 47. Both kicks were narrow misses to the right. Both times Blake just stood there, seemingly looking for answers that wouldn't come.
He did hit from 33 in the 4th quarter, but the early misses very much changed this game. If those kicks go in, the Saints are tied with the Falcons at 13 in the final minute of the first half. The Saints probably kick a field goal to tie the game again on their opening possession of the third quarter, and a stout defense forces the Falcons to operate with scoreboard pressure. The red zone was also a massive problem, but this was a game the Saints could've potentially won with field goals ... if they went in. The misses were made all the more glaring by Zane Gonzalez, a kicker the Falcons signed off the street two weeks ago, knocking through kicks from 56, 41 and 52 yards in the first half on the other side.
When asked after the game, Kellen Moore didn't exactly throw his support behind his kicker, saying they'd "evaluate" the situation. I truly don't know whether the Saints will make a move, but what's the actual harm in seeing what Charlie Smyth can do at this stage? If the fear is the moment is too big for him and he misses some kicks in critical moments, well, you're in the exact same situation.
If it's an evaluation year, let's evaluate.
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3. Handling pressure
I always try to avoid heaping criticism on individual offensive linemen until I can go through the film, but there's a disturbing trend emerging about the Kellen Moore offense.
When the pressure gets ratcheted up, the Saints offense folds. The book on this Falcons defense was that they sent an extra rusher on nearly half their defensive snaps and they had a pair of elite, young edge rushers in James Pearce and Jalon Walker. The Saints weren't surprised by it. They had two weeks to prepare for it. They still couldn't handle it.
Tyler Shough was sacked five times. He was under near constant duress. The run game was limited. The only option was dink and dunk, and that worked until it didn't.
But go back through this season and look at the games in which Kellen Moore's offense has struggled the most. The games that stand out to me:
- at Seahawks (13 points)
- vs Bucs (3 points)
- at Rams (10 points)
- vs Falcons (10 points)
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The Bucs and Falcons generate pressure with the blitz and are among the top sack teams in the NFL. The Rams and Seahawks generate elite pressure with their front four. In each of those matchups, the Saints offense had no answers. That's not to say the Saints have had a dynamic offense in other games, but they've at least been able to keep pace.
Inexperienced QB play is likely a factor here, as is losing Erik McCoy in the center of the line, but it seems far too easy to dominate the Saints offensive front. I'm losing hope that the issue gets fixed this season, but it's a major red flag and point of concern for me as I watch this system build going forward.
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A few more
I don't think Tyler Shough had a terrible day. He made some nice plays and evaded pressure as well as could be hoped. The Saints were behind the whole game and getting in obvious passing situations against that defense is a problem. He also flashed his running ability that should be a positive for this offense. Where I was disappointed was accuracy. It's what I'd call a strength of his when he's playing well, but in this game there were a few too many misses for my liking. One example came on a spectacular diving catch by Juwan Johnson that preceded a punt. There were a few balls like that. ... Saints special teams seemed to have sorted things out, but this game was rough. After the Saints cut the margin to 6, the Falcons immediately had a return out near midfield. The Saints were rescued by a Falcons taunting penalty. Later in the game it was a 32-yard punt -- a theme for Kai Kroeger -- that was rescued by a holding penalty. Kellen Moore talks a lot about margins, they get lost when you can't maximize field position on special teams.
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STOCK UP
1. Devin Neal's got juice
I was honestly stunned when I looked at the stat sheet and saw that Devin Neal only managed 18 yards on his 7 rush attempts. No one is going to be bragging about 2.6 yards per carry. Still, the rookie's got juice, and I think anyone watching could see that.
Neal's biggest impact came as a pass-catcher as he served as a frequent safety valve for Tyler Shough, rolling up 43 yards on 5 catches, in several instance making defenders miss as he picked up critical yardage. It was Neal that really gave the team a spark early in the third quarter when they started to take control of the game (even if the scoreboard doesn't reflect that). Neal and Taysom's hard running is what allowed the Saints to extend two drives for 15 plays that ultimately were stopped shy of the end zone.
On that first drive Neal had gains of:
- +18 (catch)
- +4
- +4
- +4
- +6
My biggest criticism is that despite being the engine that drove the Saints to the red zone, he didn't get single touch in that area of the field. That was true again on the Saints' next red zone visit. Really would love for that to change.
Regardless, even if Alvin Kamara avoided major injury, it's still likely he misses some time. This showing made me feel like he'll be able to hold his own during that span, however long it may be.
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2. J. Reid's big play
I wouldn't say this has been the dream homecoming Justin Reid might've envisioned when he signed with the Saints last offseason, but he's been a steadying presence for this young secondary.
A lot is being asked of the one veteran surrounded by a rookie starting safety, rooking starting outside corner and a second-year pro on the other side. That's part of the deal. Where I've been critical was the lack of game-changing plays, particularly when you consider he's effectively replacing Tyrann Mathieu, who picked up 10 interceptions in three seasons.
Well, Reid had his moment today. His interception came on a tip drill and an assist from Kool-Aid McKinstry, but it was his runback that really stood out. If you didn't know any better you'd think he was an offensive player, cutting back to avoid tacklers for a touchdown that was desperately needed. Getting into the end zone in that situation also felt critical, because trusting the Saints offense to finish off a red zone touchdown wouldn't have been wise.
Those are the plays you brought him here to make. Check.
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3. Tipton's speed
I've always known Mason Tipton was fast. It's just that we never seemed to see it in game settings. That changed in this one.
Tipton looked like he was shot out of a cannon on a 75-yard kickoff return that, at least for a moment, felt like it set up the Saints to take control of this game early. The Saints came away with zero points on that possession, but it wasn't Tip's fault.
The second-year speedster out of Yale also had an impressive 11-yard pickup on a jet sweep and caught his first three passes of the season for 22 yards.
Moore made sure to mention that Tipton would be seeing a significant uptick in reps with the departures of Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks, and that promise was delivered on in this game. If Tipton can also play closer to his sprinting speed in game settings he could be a real asset for this team.
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HONORABLE MENTION
Juwan Johnson catches a lot of grief for his, well, drops. So it's only fair that he gets credit for the other end of the spectrum. Over the past three games Johnson has caught 13 of 15 targets for 164 yards and two touchdowns. The incompletion against the Rams was broken up by Jessie Bates. That number also included an impressive diving grab at full extension. Through 11 games Juwan has already set a new career high in targets (67). He needs two more catches and 12 more yards to set new career highs in those respects, too. ... Speaking of career highs, Demario Davis is well on his way to another high water mark in tackles. He's already up to 102 stops with six games remaining after logging 11 tackles in this game. His career high was 136, set last season. Demario only needs to average 6 tackles per game the rest of the way to break that mark. He's currently averaging. ... Cam Jordan is in a limited role, but he continues to deliver. He had a few big plays in this game, most notably a strip sack of Kirk Cousins in the first quarter where he was just shy of coming away with the turnover. The sack gives him 4.5 on the season and is No. 126 in Cam's career. It moved him past Dwight Freeney up to No. 27 on the all-time list. ... I'd still like to see more, but there were some nice moments for Devaughn Vele in this game, multiple times working the middle of the field for first downs in traffic. That's what he's here for, gotta take advantage. Now, if they could only make that work in the red zone, we'd be in business.