The New Orleans Saints are loaded up with picks in the 2025 draft, and nailing them will be as important as anything when it comes to ending their current postseason skid at No. 4.
There are decisions to be made at head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators, quarterback and up and down the roster. Still, when you nail the draft, all those things tend to come out in the wash. With the Senior Bowl on tap, which doubles as one of the Saints' most trusted scouting events, it feels like an appropriate time to dive in.
It's as simple as looking back to the last Saints postseason drought (2013-16) to ID when and how turned things around. It wasn't coaching changes, though Dennis Allen's takeover of the defense played a significant role. It was the elite players brought in over two seasons of impeccable drafting that laid the groundwork for success.
On its face that's pretty obvious. Just think of the names involved like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore and, do I really have to go on? But what I've set out to do over the past week is to come up with a way to visualize that success -- and moreso the recent lack of it -- through a standardized rubric.
My goal was to keep things as simple as possible. I'm not going to flood you with stats or subjective analysis, just simple triggers: For example, did you draft a star-caliber player, or did you not? Did this player become a starter, or did he not? Was this a core special teamer/backup, or was he not?
And I think that's the best way to do it to make a simple determination: How far has the falloff really been?
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THE RUBRIC
The first step is to establish what the baseline goal for a quality draft. Not every one will reach that threshold, but it's the best way to establish whether you hit your mark or fell short. It'll also be relative to how many picks you had going in, so it's not an exact science.
All that said, this is what I personally consider to be the ideal draft haul:
- Star potential: 1
This is a player that has either made, or has a viable argument to have made a Pro Bowl or All Pro. Making those teams is circumstantial, but it's easy to identify when you have them.
- Starters: 3 (includes star player)
This is self-defining. Is this player a starter, or is he a fill-in? There will be some consideration to players who started games due to injuries, but if they'd immediately revert to a backup when the starter returns and never fully took the role, they are not included.
- Backups/ST: 2
There's a bit of nuance here, because while I'm trying to find these players, generally speaking I want them to come on Day 3. If I pull two career backups/special teamers from Rounds 1-3, that's not a good thing. Conversely if that comes in Rounds 4-7, that's a win. A draft can be successful even without those players because the UDFA field can be just as lucrative.
That's my rubric. It's not complex or complicated, but that's how I want it. The ideal draft class is 1 star player, 2 more starters and 2 more backups/core special teamers. Pulling five quality players out of a draft should be the goal. Anything below that and I'm asking what went wrong. Anything higher than that and I'm dissecting my process to see if I can duplicate what went right.
With all that established, let's dive in.
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TOO EARLY TO TELL
One thing I'm pretty firm on is you can't truly assess a draft class until at least 3 years down the line, and even then you're probably rushing some things. For instance, Trevor Penning would've been universally ruled a bust going into Year 3. You might still not like his ceiling, but he started 17 games and things look a lot different heading into Year 4. Players need time to develop.
Here are the two draft classes I'm not quantifying yet:
2024
- 1.14: LT Taliese Fuaga
- 2.41: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
- 5.150: QB Spencer Rattler
- 5.170: WR Bub Means
- 5.175: LB Jaylan Ford
- 6.199: DT Khristian Boyd
- 7.239: OT Josiah Ezirim
2023
- 1.29: DT Bryan Bresee
- 2.40: DE Isaiah Foskey
- 3.71: RB Kendre Miller
- 4.103: OL Nick Saldiveri
- 4.127: QB Jake Haener
- 5.146: S Jordan Howden
- 6.195: WR A.T. Perry
At first blush neither of these draft classes is blowing anyone out of the water, but are somewhere approaching my goals. There appear to be two star players in there (Bresee and Fuaga), two other starters (McKinstry, Saldiveri), and guys who could still develop into full-time starters (Rattler, Miller, Howden). There are also appear to be a handful of core special teamers/backups, and only one player who is out of town already (A.T. Perry).
These classes appear to at least be headed in the right direction, we'll have to wait and see.
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THE COLD YEARS (2018-'22)
Goal totals (5 drafts)
- Star potential: 5
- Starters: 15 (including stars)
- Backups/special teams: 10
A total of 25 quality players sounds like a lot, but remember that rookie deals are only for four seasons and this is an entire cycle. If a majority of your roster is not drafted players, that means you're not drafting well.
The reality (27 total picks)
- Star potential: 2 (-3)
- Starters: 11 (-4)
- Backups/ST: 4 (-6)
- N/A: 11 (players who did not contribute meaningfully)
That tells the story by itself, in my opinion, but here's the full breakdown:
2022 (5 picks)
- Star potential: 1.11 WR Chris Olave
- Starters: 1.19 RT Trevor Penning; 2.49 CB Alontae Taylor
- Backups/ST: 5.161 LB D'Marco Jackson
- N/A: 6.194 DT Jordan Jackson
2021 (6 picks)
- Star potential: none
- Starters: 2.60 LB Pete Werner; 3.76 CB Paulson Adebo
- Backups/ST: 1.28 DE Payton Turner; 6.206 OL Landon Young
- N/A: 4.133 QB Ian Book; 7.255 WR Kawaan Baker
2020 (4 picks)
- Star potential: none*
- Starters: 1.24 RG Cesar Ruiz; 3.105 TE Adam Trautman
- Backups/ST: 3.74 LB Zack Baun
- N/A: 7.240 TE/QB Tommy Stevens
2019 (5 picks/no 1st rounder)
- Star potential: 2.48 C Erik McCoy
- Starters: 4.105 DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson
- Backups/ST: 7.244 LB Kaden Elliss
- N/A: 6.177 S Saquan Hampton; 7.231 TE Alize Mack
2018 (7 picks)
- Star potential: none
- Starters: 1.14 DE Marcus Davenport; 3.91 WR Tre'Quan Smith
- Backups/ST: 7.245 OL Will Clapp
- N/A: 4.127 OL Rick Leonard; 5.164 S Natrell Jamerson; 6.189 CB Kamrin Moore
I don't think even the most optimistic of Saints fans would look at this run and be jumping for joy. The downturn began in 2018 when the Saints went all in for Marcus Davenport, and I'm not sure they ever bounced back. Yes, they got aggressive and traded up for Erik McCoy the next season. That's probably the most successful pick of this entire run, but there have just been way too many misses. Cutting a 4th round pick out of camp is an indictment on the process, that was also the case in 2018 with Leonard.
One thing I will note is that based on his season with the Eagles, the Saints did nail a potential star in Zack Baun, but he never rose to anything other than a backup during his time with the Saints. It's difficult to pin that on the draft process, but it's an example of another missed opportunity that this team has to figure out.
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THE HOT YEARS (2016-'17)
Goal totals (2 drafts)
- Star potential: 2
- Starters: 6 (including stars)
- Backups/ST: 4
The reality (12 total picks)
- Star potential: 4 (+2)
- Starters: 10 (+4)
- Backups/ST: 0 (-4)
N/A: 2
A good example of the special teamer number being a bit misleading. In this case you hit on so many starters, there wasn't much of a chance for depth players to crack the roster. The important thing to note: In two drafts you landed 10 starters, compared to 11 in the next five drafts. You saw the success from 2017-2020, compared to the lack of it from 2021 on. Those things are not unrelated.
Here's how those drafts break down:
2017 (7 picks)
- Star potential: 1.11 CB Marshon Lattimore; 1.32 RT Ryan Ramczyk; 3.67 RB Alvin Kamara
- Starters: 2.42 S Marcus Williams; 3.76 LB Alex Anzalone; 3.103 DE Trey Hendrickson
- Backups/ST: none
- N/A: DE Al-Quadin Muhammad
2016 (5 picks)
- Star potential: 2.47 WR Michael Thomas
- Starters: 1.13 DT Sheldon Rankins; 2.61 S Vonn Bell; 4.120 DT David Onyemata
- Backups/ST: none
- N/A: 7.237 RB Daniel Lasco
This all kind of speaks for itself. Keep in mind that similar to above, I'm not listing Hendrickson as a star because that didn't really happen until he left the Saints. If they viewed him as a star, they wouldn't have let him leave. It was a mis-evaluation. Hendrickson is one of 6 starters (non-stars) pulled out of those two drafts. And even while there were technically more (9) from 2018-'22, consider the names.
- RT Trevor Penning
- CB Alontae Taylor
- LB Pete Werner
- CB Paulson Adebo
- RG Cesar Ruiz
- TE Adam Trautman
- DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson
- WR Tre'Quan Smith
- DE Marcus Davenport
vs
- S Marcus Williams
- LB Alex Anzalone
- DE Trey Hendrickson
- DT Sheldon Rankins
- S Vonn Bell
- DT David Onyemata
If I gave you the pick of either of those lists, which are you taking?
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WHAT'S THE FIX?
It's difficult to nail down, because the scouting and draft process is so complex. There's so many hands in the mix, and there are so many data points that go into every draft class and every individual pick.
What needs to happen, and what I expect the Saints to do, is re-evaluate the process from top to bottom. Were there things happening in those 2016 and 2017 drafts that aren't happening now? If so, figure out why, and find a way to get back to them.
Next, and I do think this has been something of a shift in recent years: Accumulate darts to throw at the board. There can be no more of these halfcourt heaves that leverage assets years down the line. That made sense when the title window was open, it does not now.
That's started to some extent the two seasons with 7 picks made in each, but in 2024 five of those picks came in the 5th round or later. One clear component to the Saints' drafting success in 2016 and 2017 were extra picks early in the draft. In 2016 it was three picks in the top 61. In 2017 it was six picks in the top 103.
Thanks to the Marshon Lattimore trade, the Saints have a similar setup in 2025:
- 1.09
- 2.40
- 3.71
- 3.93
- 4.110
- 4.129
- 6.182
- 7.251
- 7.254
Five picks in the top 129 could go a long way, but I also wouldn't mind seeing the Saints put a few of these together to get up for another pick in the third round. The Saints haven't pulled a starter out of the 4th round or later since 2019 (Gardner-Johnson), and the last time they had three third rounders they hit big.
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At the end of the day the takeaway is pretty simple: You want to see this Saints group return to prominence as the deep, competitive group we enjoyed watching during the latter years of the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era? You've got to land the right head coach, yes. You've got to make the right call at the QB position, yes. But there's no way around it ... draft better, or those two will be set up to fail, regardless.