The NASCAR Cup Series will be back in Daytona Sunday as drivers compete in the Daytona International Speedway road course. We saw some drivers last Tuesday night in the Busch Clash at the road course track, which gave us a good idea of how drivers will fare this week.
Road courses are a different type of race as they tend to give advantage to a particular set of drivers. Shifting and understanding how to conserve the car’s braking system are key. Drivers Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr. have mastered that ability resulting in seven wins between the two in the last eight road races.
Drivers, who participated in last Tuesday’s Clash all-star event, will have an advantage Sunday as they got to put laps down for what will be a similar race. I would look for drivers who drove well in that race as a blueprint of how Sunday’s race should unfold.
Last year, we saw Chase Elliott dominate this track and it should be no different as his implied odds to win are significantly smaller than the rest of the field. While I think he will be the driver to beat, Elliot may not be my pick to win this week.
Here are some drivers you should buy and sell for this week’s O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 at Daytona.
BUY:
Martin Truex Jr: (Odds: +450)
While Chase Elliott will be a popular choice this week, I’m going to pick the guy with the second best odds to win. Truex has a superb road course record and should contend for the win.
The #19 JGR Toyota finished 3rd place in last year’s Daytona road course race and has a record of five straight top-10 finishes. Since 2017, Truex has three wins and six top-3 finishes, which is the best of all active drivers in that span.
Looking back at his Clash results, his 21st finish is misleading. Truex had the lead late in the race, before hitting the wall and knocking himself out of it. Best of all, Truex was leading the race when this happened. So it’s quite possible Martin Truex, Jr. could have won, but some dirt on the track caused his handling to hit a wall. There are about 4-5 drives who actually have a legit shot at winning this race on Sunday and Truex is one of them.
Denny Hamlin: (Odds: 11/1)
The theme of Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas continues as Denny Hamlin is my next driver, who should have a chance at taking the checkered flag. Teammate of Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch, Hamlin has seen both of his teammates win NASCAR championships the past few seasons.
Arguably the current best driver of the trio, Hamlin won the most races in the last year between them, but is still looking for his first road course win since 2016.
Teammate Kyle Busch went on to win the Clash last week, so the Toyotas seem to be the manufacturer with the strongest cars. That bodes well for Hamlin, since he led 21 of the 35 laps in that race, but finished in 6th. He also finished 2nd in last year’s Daytona road course race and led 16 laps in that one. Many experts picked Hamlin to win the Daytona 500 last week, but I think it may be this week’s race where he’s overlooked by many.
SELL:
Brad Keselowski: (Odds: 20/1)
Keselowski doesn’t have a good record at Daytona and that’s not any different on the road course. The #2 Penske Ford ended its Daytona 500 in a wreck in turn 3 on the final lap of the race and I think that could continue to spiral this week.
Looking at Keselowski history at this track, he finished 17th last week and 13th in the 2020 race. Keselowksi doesn’t have a win at a road course and I just think it’s a track where some drivers struggle.
Oddly enough, his Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano have solid road course records. Blaney is the only other driver not named Elliott and Truex to win a road course race in the past eight. Keselowksi also seems to be the odd man out currently in the Penske trio.
Joey Logano was two turns away from winning the Daytona 500 Sunday, before Keselowski accidently bumped him into the infield grass. R yan Blaney had the lead in the final turn of the Clash before being turned into the wall. Both Logano and Blaney have shown they have the cars to lead, while I’m not sure that’s the case for the #2.
LONGSHOT QUICK PICKS:
William Bryon (Odds: 22/1)
I don’t think road courses are the tracks where you see longshots win, but if there is a driver who’s been quietly good the past year on these type of tracks, it’s William Byron.
Byron has four straight top-10s at both the Daytona and Charlotte road courses. He finished 5th in last Tuesday’s Clash race and 8th in the 2020 Daytona race. While Byron’s better on the Charlotte track, don’t be surprised if he finishes inside the top-10 again Sunday.
Erik Jones (Odds: 66/1)
Like Byron, Jones had good results at road courses the past two years. Jones also made a manufacture change this offseason switching the Toyota of JGR to the Chevrolet of Petty Motorsports. He may not have the equipment he had at JGR, but he’s got the talent. We saw that with an 8th place finish in the Clash. Erik Jones also has four top-10 finishes in the last six races on road courses.
