With increased interest rates and decades of high inflation, there has been a good amount of forecasting ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing its latest monthly jobs report on Friday. Many economists and political leaders will be looking to see if the labor market is showing signs of loosening up. It’s one of many critical factors the Federal Reserve uses to determine its next steps in trying to bring down inflation. Early forecasts of the September jobs report predict the U.S. added 250,000 jobs in September, which would be the lowest monthly jobs gain since December 2020. On the Newell Normand Show this week, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, gave his take on the accuracy of these early jobs forecasts.
“At some level, some of the reports seem to be singing from the same hymnal in the sense that the job market is stable, perhaps cooling somewhat, but coming down from really red-hot levels,” Hamrick told Newell on Thursday.
Beyond the jobs report, Hamrick said Bankrate’s own analysis reveals over the next 12 months that a recession is “almost inevitable.” Of course, much of that depends on the Federal Reserve’s future policies. In the short term, Hamrick said jobs and the unemployment rate can balance each other out.
“Job cuts are probably on the rise to some degree. When you have 10.1 million job openings, it looks like for the most part, individuals are able to find a job pretty rapidly if they’re so inclined,” said Hamrick.
Listen to Newell and Hamrick’s full conversation, including what Bankrate expects with job openings as we head closer to the new year: