While it may feel like a calm hurricane season so far along the Gulf Coast, climatologists say the Atlantic is already seeing above-average storm activity and it’s only July.
Barry Keim, climatologist with LSU Health, says the apparent quiet is a case of location bias.
"Just because storms haven’t hit Louisiana doesn’t mean they haven’t happened,” Keim said. “We’ve already seen three named storms this year, and one of them was responsible for a chain of events that led to deadly flash flooding in Texas. Another storm slammed the Carolinas with high winds and torrential rain.”
Keim notes that having three named storms this early in the season is unusual.
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"Typically, the third named storm doesn’t form until August. We’ve already had ours, and we’re just now approaching mid-July,” he said.
So what’s keeping the Gulf region relatively quiet? According to Keim, Saharan dust and persistent wind shear have helped suppress local tropical activity, for now.
But he warns that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear.
“We’re just getting into the meat of the season”
Forecasts from national weather outlets still call for an above-average hurricane season, though some predictions have been slightly downgraded.
Regardless, Keim says residents shouldn’t let their guard down.
Locally, southeast Louisiana has seen a return to typical summer weather patterns, including afternoon pop-up showers nearly every day.
The driest day this week is expected to be Tuesday, with increased chances of severe weather and flash flooding by Thursday and Friday.
“Now is the time to stay prepared,” Keim said. “Conditions can change fast.”